Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4499

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to prohibit any requirement that a member of the National Guard receive a vaccination against COVID-19.

Description: This bill prohibits federal funds from being used to require a member of the National Guard to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. In addition, the Department of Defense is prohibited from taking any adverse action (e.g., punishment) against a member of the National Guard because the member refuses to receive such a vaccination.

Sponsors: Sen. Blackburn, Marsha [R-TN]

Target Audience

Population: Members of the National Guard

Estimated Size: 440000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

National Guard member (Texas)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I didn't want to get vaccinated, but the potential for disciplinary action was stressful.
  • This policy means I can avoid vaccination without worrying about my career being impacted.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 5
Year 2 8 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 3

National Guard medic (California)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe everyone should have the right to choose regarding medical decisions.
  • This policy doesn't change my role, but it reduces tension among my peers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

National Guard officer (New York)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Vaccines are crucial for maintaining unit readiness, but as long as refusal doesn't impact service, I'm alright with this policy.
  • Our focus should be maintaining operational effectiveness.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

National Guard IT specialist (Florida)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I fear this policy could lead to outbreaks and operational disruption.
  • Vaccinations are a collective responsibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 5

National Guard logistics specialist (Ohio)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a relief; I won't face further repercussions for sticking by my choice.
  • It takes away a lot of stress.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 3
Year 2 5 3
Year 3 5 3
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 2

National Guard HR specialist (Nevada)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've observed the stress mandates place on unvaccinated colleagues; this policy could reduce conflict.
  • I'm still concerned about overall health safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

National Guard Sergeant (North Carolina)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I appreciate the freedom to choose now without facing punishment.
  • It's important to feel supported by the organization.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 4
Year 2 8 3
Year 3 8 3
Year 5 8 3
Year 10 7 3
Year 20 6 2

National Guard Colonel (Virginia)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our mission readiness could take precedence, but I respect my soldiers' right to choose.
  • The policy might decrease tension within the ranks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

National Guard intelligence analyst (Iowa)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope this doesn't make my job more difficult due to increased health risks.
  • Regulations should prioritize safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Cadet (Illinois)

Age: 21 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might influence my final decision about joining.
  • It's reassuring to know there could be more freedom of choice.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 2: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 3: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 5: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 10: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Year 100: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)

Key Considerations