Bill Overview
Title: Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022
Description: This bill directs the President to establish an interagency committee on global catastrophic risk and addresses related issues. The President, with support from the committee, shall supplement each Federal Interagency Operational Plan to include a strategy to ensure the health, safety, and general welfare of the civilian population affected by catastrophic incidents. The Department of Homeland Security shall lead an exercise as part of the national exercise program to test and enhance the operationalization of the strategy.
Sponsors: Sen. Portman, Rob [R-OH]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals worldwide potentially impacted by global catastrophic risks
Estimated Size: 330000000
- Global Catastrophic Risk pertains to events that could harm or destroy human civilization, thereby potentially impacting everyone globally.
- Given the nature of catastrophic risks, they typically involve scenarios like pandemics, large-scale natural disasters, nuclear events, or other civilization-threatening situations.
- If such an event occurred, it would theoretically impact the entire global population of approximately 8 billion people, as all would face the direct or indirect consequences.
Reasoning
- Since the policy targets risks that can affect everyone, it was essential to simulate interviews with people from various walks of life, including those who might be directly involved in disaster management, those who are vulnerable, and those who might not be directly affected.
- We considered different demographics, including age, gender, occupation, and geographic location, to reflect the diversity of the US population.
- Although the policy effect is averagely large in scope, individual impacts may vary significantly based on personal circumstances, geographical location, and occupation.
- This simulation considers short-term and long-term effects, assuming the policy might take years to implement effectively, hence affecting wellbeing scores differently over time.
- Given budgetary constraints and the need to spread resources across a large population, the impact on individual well-being is not expected to change dramatically unless the person is directly involved in policy outcomes or risks.
Simulated Interviews
Emergency Management Specialist (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides a structure that can enhance our efforts in emergency preparedness.
- My work will benefit from clear guidelines and cooperation among different governmental levels.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
School Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Having a policy that addresses catastrophic risks is reassuring.
- It should translate into better resources and educational materials for schools.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
IT Professional (Minneapolis, MN)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's critical for the government to address catastrophic IT risks like data breaches.
- I hope this policy includes guidelines for improving national cybersecurity infrastructure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 72 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might bring better coordination during natural disasters.
- I'd like to see effective implementation with tangible benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Small Business Owner (Dallas, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the policy gives better insight into supply chain risks, it will be beneficial.
- There's a need for collaboration between the government and businesses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Environmental Activist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with my goals of preparing for climate change impacts.
- Coordination and action plans are vital; hope the focus shifts more towards prevention.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could shape future career opportunities and fields of study.
- Increases the importance of studying disaster management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Healthcare Worker (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 60 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It’s good to have comprehensive strategies for crises, especially in healthcare response.
- I hope this includes improved training and resources for medical professionals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Nonprofit Worker (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 12.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could streamline the efforts during emergencies.
- Support from the federal government is crucial in managing resources more effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Oil Industry Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Understanding risks in the energy sector is crucial as part of this policy.
- I hope it places significant emphasis on infrastructure safety.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1000000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1100000000)
Year 2: $1100000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 3: $1200000000 (Low: $1100000000, High: $1300000000)
Year 5: $1300000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1400000000)
Year 10: $1500000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 100: $2000000000 (Low: $1900000000, High: $2100000000)
Key Considerations
- The ability to promptly address a catastrophic event may prevent significant economic downturns.
- Long-term savings from avoided costs of disaster recovery can be substantial but are hard to quantify upfront.
- The collaboration with international partners can be critical in leveraging global resources.