Bill Overview
Title: A bill to terminate General License No. 8C of the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Department of the Treasury and require the application of sanctions under Executive Order 14024 to the entities listed in General License No. 8C.
Description: This bill terminates General License No. 8C, which was issued by the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control to authorize energy-related transactions involving specified Russian financial institutions. Further, the bill applies property-blocking sanctions to those Russian financial institutions listed in the license.
Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals impacted by the termination of OFAC's General License No. 8C and related sanctions
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The termination of General License No. 8C will impact entities that were conducting authorized energy-related transactions with specified Russian financial institutions, including companies and governments that relied on this license for their operations.
- Many European countries and industries that depend on Russian energy resources may be affected, as they may have been conducting transactions under this license for oil, gas, or other energy supplies.
- In Russia, financial institutions that are currently benefiting from transactions under General License No. 8C will face property-blocking sanctions, which will affect their global and domestic operations.
- Sanctions are designed to limit the financial and operational capabilities of listed Russian entities, aiming to affect the broader Russian energy market.
- The overall global energy market could be affected due to disruptions in energy transactions, which might lead to price changes and supply challenges.
Reasoning
- The target population of 10,000,000 Americans estimated to be indirectly affected includes energy companies, consumers affected by energy price fluctuations, and businesses that engage with international energy markets.
- Given the budget constraints, only a subset will experience significant impacts, particularly those heavily reliant on energy transactions with specified Russian financial institutions.
- Most Americans' wellbeing is likely to remain stable, with minor indirect economic impacts possible through market adjustments.
- We should capture a variety of perspectives, including individuals not directly involved in energy markets but who might experience indirect effects, such as increased energy costs or changes in market dynamics.
- The diversity among American consumers, from those in densely populated regions to rural areas reliant on fossil fuels, should be reflected.
Simulated Interviews
Energy Market Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I closely monitor changes in energy trade policies.
- This policy could disrupt some of our European clients sourcing energy under this license.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Oil Company Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the sanctions affecting our operations in Europe.
- This might lead to job uncertainty if we can't navigate new regulations effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Manufacturing Plant Manager (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If energy prices spike, we might struggle with operational costs.
- This could indirectly affect us through increased utility bills.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Tech Startup Founder (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions like these can open opportunities for new tech solutions in energy.
- I'm optimistic about positioning our tech to aid companies affected by sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Retired (Birmingham, AL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry any energy price increase will hurt my budget.
- This policy seems aimed at companies, but it could affect consumers indirectly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in energy markets can affect my shipping routes and costs.
- If our partners face sanctions, it disrupts our predictive logistics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Environmental Policy Advocate (Chicago, IL)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies that restrict fossil fuel trades might accelerate clean energy adoption.
- I hope this pushes companies to invest in sustainable energy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Attorney specializing in international trade (Dallas, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will increase demand for compliance services.
- We expect more clients needing advice on adapting to these changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Freelance Journalist (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides a lot to cover in terms of geopolitical energy strategies.
- Sanctions often bring uncertainty, which can drive reader interest.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Investment Advisor (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Russian-related investments need careful re-evaluation now.
- There may be volatility, but also opportunities in renewables.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $40000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $45000000)
Year 2: $38000000 (Low: $33000000, High: $43000000)
Year 3: $37000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $42000000)
Year 5: $36000000 (Low: $31000000, High: $41000000)
Year 10: $34000000 (Low: $29000000, High: $39000000)
Year 100: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $35000000)
Key Considerations
- Global energy markets may experience fluctuations affecting both costs and revenues.
- The policy's impact on international relations, particularly with European countries reliant on Russian energy, should be monitored.
- Potential inflation effects due to increased energy prices might indirectly affect broader economic conditions.