Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4460

Bill Overview

Title: END FENTANYL Act

Description: This bill requires U.S. Customs and Border Protection to review and update, as necessary, manuals and policies related to inspections at ports of entry to ensure the uniformity of inspection practices to effectively detect illegal activity along the border, such as the smuggling of drugs and humans.

Sponsors: Sen. Scott, Rick [R-FL]

Target Audience

Population: People globally affected by fentanyl-related issues

Estimated Size: 30000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Unemployed (Appalachia, WV)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the policy works, there could be fewer drugs around, which is good, but I'm worried about driving use underground even more.
  • More inspections might scare off some of the dealers bringing in dangerous stuff. That's a good deterrent.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 3

ER Nurse (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might help reduce the number of overdoses we see if it's effective.
  • I hope there are resources for addiction treatment as well, not just prevention.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Customs and Border Protection Officer (San Diego, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could add to our workload, might need more training to deal with new technologies.
  • I hope it makes our job easier in identifying trafficking activities.
  • Operational changes require adaptation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Recovering Opioid Addict (Portland, OR)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Reducing fentanyl on the streets can make recovery easier for many, including myself.
  • Hope this policy leads to less overdose deaths.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Drug Policy Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy needs to be backed by more than just inspections; treatment and recovery services are critical.
  • Better monitoring should help the data drive informed decisions on drug policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 7

Logistics Manager (Houston, TX)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We need efficient inspections that don't slow down legitimate trade.
  • If inspections are uniform and predictable, our processes will improve.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Urban Resident (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any step that can mean less harm in my community is welcome.
  • I hope the inspections mean fewer drugs making it into the neighborhood.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 3

Non-Profit Director (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Improved inspections are part of the solution, but not the only one.
  • We'll keep pushing for more comprehensive policies that deliver housing and mental health support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Law Student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 36 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy should also consider reforming how we treat low-level drug offenders.
  • I'm curious if this approach reduces supply as intended.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Border Community Activist (El Paso, TX)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The intent of the policy is positive, but execution is key.
  • Hopeful for improvements, skeptical about the potential for increased tension at the border.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)

Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $40000000)

Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $35000000)

Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $25000000)

Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $10000000)

Key Considerations