Bill Overview
Title: SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP Act
Description: This bill grants certain authorities to the President for entering into a comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom (UK). Specifically, the bill directs the President to initiate negotiations with the UK regarding tariff and nontariff barriers affecting any industry, product, or service sector. The bill authorizes the President to enter into a comprehensive trade agreement with the UK, with such authority expiring on July 1, 2027. Further, the President may proclaim a modification or continuance of any existing duty or continuance of existing excise or duty-free treatment to carry out an agreement, with certain limitations. The bill also requires the President to consult with and notify Congress regarding the intention of the President to enter into an agreement or make a proclamation.
Sponsors: Sen. Portman, Rob [R-OH]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in US-UK trade and associated industries
Estimated Size: 28000000
- The bill seeks to establish a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and UK, which means it primarily affects those involved in trade between these two countries.
- Policy changes regarding tariffs and nontariff barriers directly affect industries that rely heavily on international trade.
- Business sectors in both countries that export or import goods and services will be directly impacted.
- The bill's provisions could influence job markets, affecting workers in trade-dependent industries.
- Investors who engage in transatlantic investments will be significantly affected due to potential shifts in economic policies.
Reasoning
- The policy focuses on strengthening US-UK trade relations which mostly impacts businesses and workers engaged in these transactions.
- It will be vital to include a diverse range of perspectives from executives in multinational corporations, small business owners in export, and workers in manufacturing to evaluate the broader impact.
- We should consider both direct effects, like changes in tariff costs, and indirect effects, such as employment changes in sectors tied to trade.
- The budget constraints may limit direct individual financial benefits but could lead to macroeconomic improvements, affecting wellbeing over the long term.
Simulated Interviews
Export Business Owner (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am hopeful that lowering tariffs with the UK will increase my business profits.
- Currently, tariffs make it harder to compete with local UK companies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 6 |
Oil Industry Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Stable trade relations could benefit our strategic planning in the UK, positively influencing my job security.
- There might be more travel opportunities and exposure to international projects.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the policy succeeds, our company could expand more rapidly, leading to more job opportunities and salary growth for me.
- I worry whether this will lead to increased competition with UK developers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Automotive Manufacturing Worker (Chicago, IL)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A trade agreement could mean steadier job opportunities and potentially more hours.
- I'm concerned about possible job cuts if tariffs aren't favorable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Investment Banker (Miami, FL)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy clarity might drive investment growth, benefiting my clients and my career prospects.
- Economic fluctuations during negotiations could temporarily unsettle markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could open up new business prospects in the UK, helping my startup gain traction.
- There are uncertainties that could hamper immediate scaling operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Logistics Manager (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower trade barriers could simplify our logistics and lower costs, positively affecting operational efficiency.
- I'm wary of potential regulatory changes making systems more complex.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Small Manufacturing Business Owner (Detroit, MI)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Streamlining trade could enable business expansion and staff hiring.
- There are risks if negotiations fail to lead to stable policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 5 |
Marketing Specialist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Trade policies that reduce barriers could lead to extensive work opportunities and career growth.
- Market volatility during the transition could be worrisome.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Economist (Boston, MA)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Given my field of work, this policy provides rich analysis opportunities and professional insights.
- The policy's effect is complex, and its success hinges on various external economic factors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $75000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $60000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $80000000)
Year 3: $70000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $95000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The agreement's impact will depend on the specifics of the negotiated terms.
- Potential geopolitical shifts affecting trade relations.
- Legislative and administrative hurdles in implementing the agreement fully.