Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Policy Act of 2022
Description: This bill provides support to Taiwan and addresses related issues. For example, the bill (1) establishes a comprehensive training program with Taiwan's government to familiarize the U.S. military and Taiwan's military with each other and achieve interoperability, and (2) authorizes the Department of State to take actions to help Taiwan become a non-borrowing member of the Inter-American Development Bank.
Sponsors: Sen. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals residing in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 1300000
- Taiwan has a population of about 23.5 million people, all of whom could be directly impacted by increased military and financial support from the United States.
- The bill enhances military training between the U.S. and Taiwan, which suggests active personnel in Taiwan's military, about 215,000 members, could be directly engaged in training and strategic changes.
- The economic aspects of the bill might benefit the broader Taiwanese economy by facilitating its involvement in international financial institutions, affecting the general population.
Reasoning
- Since the policy primarily impacts military personnel in the U.S. and affects geopolitical stability, the direct impact on ordinary civilians is minimal. Thus, interviews will focus on perspectives from those in military, academia, or who have personal investments in Taiwan.
- The policy's budget constraints suggest that the focus of investment impacts will be more strategic than widespread across the general population.
- The Cantril wellbeing scoring from individuals will reflect their perceived security or anxiety related to international relations rather than direct financial or lifestyle impacts.
Simulated Interviews
Military Officer (San Diego, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased military exercises with Taiwan are a positive move for global strategic balance.
- However, the potential increase in deployments concerns me regarding time away from family.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Strategically, this is a necessary policy to counterbalance regional powers.
- It might elevate tension but I believe it's necessary for long-term peace.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could stress U.S.-China relations, worrying for my family in Taiwan.
- I support defense aid but fear economic repercussions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
University Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a complex policy with significant geopolitical implications.
- Educational programs should include more discussions on U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Graduate Student (New York, NY)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interested in how this policy affects my field of study.
- It may offer more research opportunities but also brings regional tension.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support policies that bolster Taiwan's position but worry about strain on U.S.-China relations.
- Security is important, but at what cost?
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
U.S. Military Reservist (Anchorage, AK)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased cooperation with Taiwan is strategically sound.
- Concerned about extended deployments and their personal impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Positive for ensuring a stable market in Taiwan, which impacts my business.
- Concerned about the impact on U.S.-China trade relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Financial Analyst (Chicago, IL)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Potential boost to Asian markets, including Taiwan, is a strategic positive.
- This could disrupt global markets short-term.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Human Rights Activist (Dallas, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More military involvement could risk exacerbating regional tensions.
- Prefer diplomatic avenues, but acknowledge military strength can serve as a deterrent.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 2: $210000000 (Low: $160000000, High: $260000000)
Year 3: $220000000 (Low: $170000000, High: $270000000)
Year 5: $240000000 (Low: $180000000, High: $290000000)
Year 10: $260000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $310000000)
Year 100: $300000000 (Low: $240000000, High: $350000000)
Key Considerations
- Taiwan's geopolitically sensitive position may necessitate long-term U.S. engagement and cost sustainability.
- Strategic alliances in tech and defense sectors could offset initial costs with future economic and security returns.
- The potential need for broader civilian support in Taiwan to maintain public favor for U.S. policy initiatives.