Bill Overview
Title: China Oil Export Prohibition Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits the exportation of petroleum products to China. Petroleum product means crude oil, refined oil or a refined oil product, residual fuel oil, or any other petroleum product. The prohibition does not apply to (1) natural gas or any natural gas liquid product, or (2) petroleum products that are in transport when the prohibition takes effect (which is 10 days after the bill's enactment).
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by the China Oil Export Prohibition
Estimated Size: 8000000
- China has a significant demand for crude oil and petroleum products to fuel its economy, impacting its industrial and consumer sectors.
- The United States exports crude oil and refined petroleum products to China, impacting the U.S. oil industry and its workers.
- The global oil market could see changes in oil prices due to a shift in trade patterns as U.S. oil companies find new markets.
- Consumers globally might be affected by potential fluctuations in oil prices, including gasoline and heating oil.
- The U.S. government and its agencies have an interest in energy security and trade policy, affecting policy and regulation staff.
- Industries dependent on petroleum products might need to adjust to supply changes.
- The legislation might lead to increased demand for American petroleum products from other international markets, driving shifts in global oil trading routes.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects the U.S. oil industry and workers, companies that handle logistics and export of oil, and the government bodies handling energy policy. While direct impact on average consumers may be marginal initially, ripple effects through the global oil market may have broader ramifications over time, such as changes in gasoline prices.
- The budgetary constraint of $50,000,000 in year 1 implies limited immediate mitigation strategies; hence, the first year's effects could see higher variability. In contrast, $620,000,000 over 10 years suggests potential for stabilizing and offsetting negative impacts longer-term.
- Considering the size of the target population (8 million), individuals directly involved in the crude oil export supply chain to China are a small fraction of the population, but they might face considerable impact. Broader consumer effects, while important, are less severe compared to these workers' specific issues.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Rig Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy introduces uncertainty in job security. Finding new markets for our oil should be a priority.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Government Energy Policy Analyst (Washington, DC)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides an opportunity to reassess international trade dependencies. I've been anticipating shifts in global market focus.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Startup Owner (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This move could accelerate interest in renewables, which is positive for business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Logistics Coordinator (Midland, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Redirecting exports is challenging but necessary. Concerns over rising costs and logistics issues are prevalent.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy may lead to volatility in oil stocks, which poses both risk and opportunity in the investment sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Environmental Activist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Excited about potential reduction in fossil fuel dependency but wary of unintended economic repercussions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Crude Oil Transporter (Alaska)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerns about job stability due to decreased shipments to China. Finding new buyers should be paramount.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 53 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy offers a unique case study in trade disruption and economic adaptation. It could provide rich teaching material.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Developer (Boston, MA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Shifts in trade routes will necessitate innovation in logistic solutions, providing new opportunities for software development.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Gas Station Manager (Detroit, MI)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy might affect gasoline prices, but potential price stability initiatives could mitigate impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $53000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $75000000)
Year 3: $56000000 (Low: $34000000, High: $80000000)
Year 5: $62000000 (Low: $38000000, High: $85000000)
Year 10: $72000000 (Low: $44000000, High: $100000000)
Year 100: $72000000 (Low: $44000000, High: $100000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential backlash from China could affect other trade agreements or negotiations.
- Short-term disruption in energy supply chains might need strategic federal interventions.
- The bill may prompt complications regarding international trade law and relations.