Bill Overview
Title: Reduce Our Military’s Reliance on Foreign Fuel Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to implement a pilot program on the use of sustainable aviation fuel by DOD. Under the bill, sustainable aviation fuel means liquid fuel that (1) consists of synthesized hydrocarbon; (2) meets the requirements of ASTM International Standard D7566; (3) is derived from biomass, waste streams, renewable energy sources, or gaseous carbon oxides; and (4) is not derived from palm fatty acid distillates.
Sponsors: Sen. Duckworth, Tammy [D-IL]
Target Audience
Population: People reliant on global fossil fuel industry economy
Estimated Size: 350000000
- Transitioning to alternative fuels affects the energy market, concerning both supply and demand.
- The bill affects sustainable aviation fuel producers and their supply chain.
- The military, as a major fuel consumer, will experience operational impacts while switching to new fuel types.
- Reducing the reliance on foreign fuel impacts geopolitical dynamics, affecting international relations.
Reasoning
- The policy mainly targets the sustainable aviation fuel industry, so the primary beneficiaries will be those directly or indirectly related to this sector.
- Military personnel's operational efficiency might improve over time, reducing foreign dependency and geopolitical risk.
- Industry workers within renewable energy and biofuel sectors might experience job growth and increased job security, slightly improving their wellbeing.
- The broader population might be affected indirectly by changes in fuel pricing and market dynamics.
- People currently employed in the oil and fossil fuel industries might face uncertainty, as a shift toward sustainable alternatives may initially reduce demand for traditional fuels.
- The projected $3.775 billion budget over ten years allows for gradual adaptation, mitigating abrupt economic disruptions.
- General public awareness of national security improvements and environmental benefits may enhance societal wellbeing.
Simulated Interviews
Biofuel Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy directly supports my work, increasing demand for sustainable fuels.
- I feel more job security knowing the military is involved.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Oil Refinery Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about job stability as demand for traditional fuels might decrease.
- I hope there are training programs for transitioning to renewable energy jobs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Military Pilot (San Diego, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Transitioning to sustainable fuels might affect performance initially but should improve reliability later.
- It’s a positive step for national security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Retired Navy Officer (Tampa, FL)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a strategic and necessary move.
- The budget seems suitable for gradual transition, minimizing shocks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Economist (Boston, MA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could stabilize energy markets in the long run by reducing dependency.
- Economic shifts will be essential, but manageable with this budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Renewable Energy Student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm optimistic about job prospects in sustainable aviation fuel.
- It's encouraging to see government commitment to sustainable practices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Environmental Policy Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns well with broader climate goals.
- Budget allocation seems appropriate for initial and ongoing impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Airline Operations Manager (Dallas, TX)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If successful, the policy could lower fuel costs in the long run.
- Short-term logistics might be tricky during the transition.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Grand Forks, ND)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unsure how this will impact my work and fuel prices.
- Hoping for efficient integration of new fuels.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Defense Policy Advisor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a pivotal policy for energy security.
- The allocated funds should cover research and implementation efficiently.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $650000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $800000000)
Year 2: $520000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $640000000)
Year 3: $390000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $480000000)
Year 5: $320000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $390000000)
Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $240000000, High: $360000000)
Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $160000000, High: $240000000)
Key Considerations
- Technological advancements in fuel synthesis may reduce costs and improve scalability over time.
- International geopolitics could influence fuel price stability and supply chains, potentially altering project economics.
- The military's operational preparedness and strategic capabilities must be sustained while transitioning fuel sources.
- Environmental impacts and compliance with renewable energy targets might shift public and governmental support.