Bill Overview
Title: DEFEND Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense to seek to cooperate with Middle East allies and partners (i.e., countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and other countries in the region as appropriate) to identify and develop an approach for such allies and partners to implement an integrated air and missile defense capability to protect against attacks from Iran and groups linked to Iran.
Sponsors: Sen. Ernst, Joni [R-IA]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the implementation and benefit of Middle Eastern defense capabilities
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill aims to establish an integrated air and missile defense capability in collaboration with Middle Eastern countries.
- The bill directly involves military and defense personnel in the United States and Middle East countries mentioned.
- It indirectly affects citizens of these Middle Eastern countries and their safety regarding potential missile threats from Iran.
- Increased defense cooperation could lead to more stability and economic impacts in the region, affecting the general population.
Reasoning
- The DEFEND Act primarily impacts military and defense-related personnel due to its focus on defense collaboration with Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, the U.S. military, defense contractors, and related personnel might observe both professional and personal implications, including job security, increased workloads, and possibly overseas deployment.
- General U.S. civilians might not be directly impacted by this policy as it is geographically focused on the Middle East and involves professional, diplomatic, and strategic military planning.
- The Cantril wellbeing scores are likely to reflect changes in job prospects, job security, and possible deployment or relocation for those directly involved. In contrast, broader public perception may align with national defense policies, but without direct personal impact.
- Because the budget limits and the relatively small target size of the population directly engaged, it is crucial to consider both individuals within the defense and military sectors and those who indirectly feel the policy's repercussions in terms of national security sentiment.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might increase my workload and involvement in Middle Eastern affairs.
- I see it as an important step in strengthening our ties with allies and ensuring security in a volatile region.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Naval Engineer (San Diego, CA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy likely means more contracts and job security for me in the coming years.
- It's reassuring to know our technology is being used to protect allies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Defense Contractor (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Indirectly beneficial for my employer's business, and my job.
- Not overly concerned about the political implications, just my work benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Missile Defense Systems Tester (Huntsville, AL)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this increases what's left in the defense budget for tech improvements.
- It may mean more stable projects, which helps my career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
International Diplomat (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy creates new opportunities for collaboration and peacebuilding.
- Could lead to longer hours assessing diplomatic impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
National Security Advisor (Dallas, TX)
Age: 56 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act is crucial for maintaining credible defense postures.
- For me, it means reinforcing existing frameworks and possibly new strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Marine Corps Officer (Norfolk, VA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Deployment is likely, which lowers my immediate wellbeing scores but ensures job and career progress.
- The policy reflects well on our strategic commitments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Defense Policy Analyst (Miami, FL)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Finally, some proactive steps toward international defense collaboration.
- I look forward to contributing my expertise in Middle Eastern defense.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Air Defense Officer (Colorado Springs, CO)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I expect this policy might lead to increased deployments.
- Enhancing regional security aligns with our strategic goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Defense Industry Worker (Tampa, FL)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 12.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ensures steady work and potential growth in our sector.
- Finally, more acknowledgment of the importance of our roles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $1900000000 (Low: $1400000000, High: $2400000000)
Year 3: $1800000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $2300000000)
Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 10: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 100: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential political and strategic benefits in the Middle East region by strengthening alliances.
- Substantial initial and ongoing financial commitments required by the Department of Defense.
- Coordination will involve complex logistics, requiring significant skill and resources to manage effectively.