Bill Overview
Title: Social Security Expansion Act
Description: This bill increases benefits and certain taxes related to the Social Security program. Changes to benefits include (1) increasing the primary insurance amount for certain beneficiaries; (2) revising the method of calculating cost-of-living adjustments; (3) establishing a new minimum benefit for certain low earners; and (4) allowing certain children of retired, deceased, or disabled workers to receive benefits until age 22 if they are a full-time student. Changes to taxes include (1) increasing the net investment income tax and making active trade or business income subject to this tax; and (2) extending payroll taxes on wages, salaries, and self-employment earnings to income above $250,000 (the maximum amount subject to the Social Security payroll tax is currently $147,000 for 2022). The bill also combines the existing Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund into a single Social Security Trust Fund.
Sponsors: Sen. Sanders, Bernard [I-VT]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals receiving Social Security benefits and individuals with income changes due to tax modifications
Estimated Size: 75000000
- Social Security benefits impact retirees, individuals with disabilities, and survivors of deceased workers who receive these benefits.
- Changes to cost-of-living adjustments and minimum benefits will impact millions of existing and future beneficiaries.
- By allowing children who are full-time students to receive benefits until 22, younger individuals who are dependents of eligible workers will also be affected.
- Approximately 69 million Americans received benefits from Social Security in 2022.
- Regarding taxes, increasing the net investment income tax and extending payroll taxes will impact individuals with higher incomes, particularly those earning above the current cap of $147,000, set to be $250,000.
Reasoning
- The Social Security Expansion Act aims to enhance benefits for current and future beneficiaries while also increasing taxes for higher-income individuals.
- Around 69 million Americans currently benefit from Social Security programs. Updates to the cost of living adjustments and new minimum benefits stand to significantly impact this group.
- On the taxation side, only individuals earning above $250,000 will be affected directly by increased taxes, which represents a smaller, wealthier segment of the population.
- This simulation will include interviews across the spectrum, from individuals who are directly impacted by benefit increases, to those impacted by tax changes, to some who might not be significantly affected by the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Retired (New York, NY)
Age: 68 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm hopeful for any increase in benefits because every little bit counts.
- The cost of living keeps going up, and my fixed income feels tighter every year.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the increased taxes on my income.
- While I understand the need for better benefits, it feels like extra burden on those who are saving for retirement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Extending benefits until I finish school is incredibly helpful.
- It means less stress about having to find a job immediately.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Retired Farmer (Bismarck, ND)
Age: 74 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Every bit helps with the cost of living out here, especially with healthcare.
- I worry about the future if nothing changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Small Business Owner (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 58 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased taxes make it harder to invest back into my business.
- I'm not opposed to supporting social programs but wish it wasn't so sudden.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Cashier (Detroit, MI)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm really looking forward to the new minimum benefits, any increase would be helpful.
- It's hard to make ends meet on what I get now.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 2 |
Construction Worker (Miami, FL)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about staying on top of bills after retiring, especially health costs.
- Any increase in benefits is a relief.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Retired Teacher (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 80 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad to hear about increases to Social Security, I've needed that for a while.
- Living on a fixed income hasn't been easy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the need to support Social Security, but the additional taxes are worrisome for my retirement plans.
- I hope to see some personal benefits from this in the future.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Human Resources Manager (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support the changes to Social Security, knowing others will benefit.
- I hope my income won't be too impacted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $75000000000 (Low: $70000000000, High: $80000000000)
Year 2: $76500000000 (Low: $71500000000, High: $81500000000)
Year 3: $78000000000 (Low: $73000000000, High: $83000000000)
Year 5: $80000000000 (Low: $75000000000, High: $85000000000)
Year 10: $85000000000 (Low: $80000000000, High: $90000000000)
Year 100: $100000000000 (Low: $95000000000, High: $105000000000)
Key Considerations
- Balancing higher Social Security benefits with increased tax revenues is crucial for long-term sustainability.
- Macro-economic conditions such as inflation rates will heavily influence the cost-of-living adjustments and, subsequently, the fiscal impact.
- Combining trust funds could result in both administrative efficiencies and complexities.