Bill Overview
Title: KREMLIN Act
Description: This bill temporarily prohibits federal agencies from contracting with persons that have business operations with the government of Russia or with fossil fuel companies that operate there, with exceptions where necessary to provide humanitarian assistance or disaster relief or where vital to U.S. national security interests. The bill terminates the prohibition when the President submits to specified congressional committees a written certification determining that Russia has reached an agreement relating to the withdrawal of Russian forces and cessation of military hostilities that is accepted by the Ukrainian government, poses no immediate military threat of aggression to any North Atlantic Treaty Organization member, and recognizes the right of the people of Ukraine to independently and freely choose their own government.
Sponsors: Sen. Scott, Rick [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People with business operations with the Russian government or fossil fuel companies
Estimated Size: 10000
- The prohibition affects any persons or entities engaged in business operations with the Russian government or Russian fossil fuel companies.
- This will impact businesses within the U.S. that are currently engaged in or planning future contracts that might involve Russian government or fossil fuel operations.
- The bill's impact extends worldwide to other entities outside the U.S. involved in similar operations with Russia, especially those seeking to engage with U.S. federal contracts.
- Employees of these businesses, both in the U.S. and abroad, may experience indirect effects, such as changes in employment opportunities or shifts in business strategy.
Reasoning
- The policy targets entities and individuals involved in operations with Russian fossil fuels and the government, directly impacting those in the energy sector and related industries.
- The budget allows for managing the prohibition's effects, estimated to affect up to 10,000 people in the U.S. directly, primarily within the energy sector, thus limiting the scale to medium-sized businesses and individuals.
- Factors such as geopolitical tensions, potential job displacement, and strategic redirection of businesses operate as primary drivers influencing the Cantril wellbeing scores for the simulated interviews.
- Sensitivity to job market shifts and business strategy are crucial determinants of the impact magnitude and duration on individuals within these categories.
Simulated Interviews
Energy Sector Consultant (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this policy as a significant hit to my client base. It might force us to reconsider partnerships that have been lucrative.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Finance Analyst - Global Markets (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This sounds like a necessary geopolitical stance, but personally, I don't foresee a direct impact on my work or wellbeing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our plans might need to pivot, but I see this as an opportunity to strengthen domestic alliances.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
CEO of a Small Food Importing Business (Chicago, IL)
Age: 53 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have to be cautious if supply chain backlogs will affect my business health, especially if sanctions extend.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 10 |
Petroleum Engineer (Dallas, TX)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a tough one. We operate a major part of our business with Russian partners. It could really slow down development and job growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired, Formerly in Diplomacy (Miami, FL)
Age: 67 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The move is strategic, clearly. It aligns well with our long-term diplomatic ideals, but seeing its practical implementation will be key.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Entrepreneur in Tech Startup (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in policy often mean new challenges and opportunities. We could shift focus to other international markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Manufacturing Plant Manager (Detroit, MI)
Age: 59 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'll need to ensure our contracts are compliant to avoid disruptions. It's cumbersome but manageable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Energy Policy Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy is a necessary impedance to Russia's military activities, but as an analyst, it increases my workload significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Import-Export Coordinator (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We don't have much stake in Russian markets, but it's best to stay updated on the policy changes just in case.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $147500000 (Low: $95000000, High: $195000000)
Year 3: $145000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $190000000)
Year 5: $140000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $180000000)
Year 10: $130000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $150000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $120000000)
Key Considerations
- Shifts in global energy market dynamics could affect policy cost effectiveness.
- The duration of the prohibitions and geopolitical developments could significantly alter estimates.
- Existing and new contracts with federal agencies might need renegotiation, impacting cost.