Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4363

Bill Overview

Title: Armed Forces Fuel Choice Act of 2022

Description: This bill requires each commissary or exchange store located on a military installation in the United States (or any territory or possession of the United States) that offers gasoline for commercial sale to offer the sale of at least one fuel that contains not less than 13% ethanol not later than January 1, 2024. Commissaries and exchanges that require the replacement of an underground storage tank to offer such fuel must offer the sale not later than January 1, 2025.

Sponsors: Sen. Thune, John [R-SD]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals who shop at military commissaries or exchanges in the United States

Estimated Size: 12000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Active Duty Soldier (Fort Hood, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Having access to ethanol-blended fuel on-base might make it easier to support eco-friendly options.
  • I hope it doesn't increase fuel prices, as costs are already tight.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Retired Navy (Norfolk, VA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy aligns with my values; it's a step towards sustainable practices.
  • I believe this kind of initiative could lead to broader adoption of cleaner fuels.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Reservist (Fort Bragg, NC)

Age: 26 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about how efficient this ethanol fuel will be, especially for long drives.
  • If it saves on costs in the long run, I might see the benefit.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 4

Civilian contractor (San Diego, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this change will affect me much as I usually fill up off-base.
  • The policy seems well-intentioned but I don't see immediate benefits for myself.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Active Duty Air Force (Anchorage, AK)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If ethanol fuel proves more economical, it might ease some financial strain.
  • I'm concerned about any possible negative impacts ethanol might have on my vehicle.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Retired Army (Jacksonville, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am skeptical about how this policy will genuinely benefit us older folks.
  • We need more than policy; we need clarity on fuel impacts on older cars.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Active Duty Navy (Oahu, HI)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Access to more modern fuel options aligns with the progressive initiatives I support.
  • I'm optimistic that my contribution to environmental goals increases with such policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Active Duty Marine (Guam)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • In Guam, fuel options are somewhat limited, so more choices are welcome.
  • I'm hopeful for the environmental benefits but need to see the economic impact.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Reservist (Colorado Springs, CO)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This change could be a small part of leading towards more significant nationwide energy policy shifts.
  • Ethanol implementation has its challenges; its a piece in the larger puzzle of energy sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

LGBT+ Advocate and Civilian Contractor (Alameda, CA)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I appreciate that the military is prioritizing cleaner fuels; it's a step towards inclusivity even in energy solutions.
  • While I may not use the ethanol fuel directly, its existence supports a cleaner community, which I value.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)

Year 2: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)

Year 5: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $4000000)

Year 10: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $1500000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations