Bill Overview
Title: PANIC Act of 2022
Description: This bill expands the definition of major illicit drug producing country to include a country that is a direct source of certain drugs (or precursor chemicals for producing such drugs) that are significantly affecting the United States. (Under current law, a country designated a major illicit drug producing country may be eligible for certain U.S. foreign assistance, including transfers of excess defense articles. However, a designated country that fails to adhere to commitments related to drug control measures may be barred from receiving other forms of foreign assistance and may also be subject to trade restrictions.)
Sponsors: Sen. Cornyn, John [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in major illicit drug producing countries
Estimated Size: 5000000
- Countries that are classified as major illicit drug producing countries will be impacted due to changes in US foreign policy and trade restrictions.
- Individuals living in these countries may experience shifts in their local economies, especially where those economies are reliant on trade with the US.
- The act may lead to changes in legal and regulatory measures within these countries related to drug production and enforcement.
- Producers and distributors of narcotics and precursor chemicals in designated countries will be directly impacted by potential trade restrictions and decreased foreign assistance.
- Citizens involved in the drug production supply chain in these countries will likely face economic impacts.
Reasoning
- To simulate the interviews, a diverse range of people in the US should be considered, including those directly affected by drug market changes, law enforcement officials, healthcare workers, and those with little to no direct impact.
- Considering the restrictions of the policy budget, it is clear that the domestic impact in terms of funding is minimal. Therefore, more focus should be on indirect impacts and perceptions of the policy.
- The US population impacted by the policy directly is relatively small compared to foreign populations, meaning domestic changes might be more about perception and indirect market effects.
Simulated Interviews
Healthcare Worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this policy will reduce the number of overdose cases I see daily.
- However, I am concerned that it may not address the underlying issues of addiction.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Law Enforcement Officer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy should tighten restrictions on drug flow into the US.
- There might be short-term supply issues, leading to price hikes or pushes to substitute markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
University Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could potentially lead to a shortage of certain recreational drugs among my peers.
- I am curious to see if it affects international diplomatic relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Public Policy Analyst (Miami, FL)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act is a significant move in redefining foreign policy related to drugs.
- However, its effectiveness depends on execution and international cooperation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Small Business Owner (Houston, TX)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned this will impact the availability of certain medicines if they use reclassified chemicals.
- It may affect my business supply chain.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Freelance Writer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The PANIC Act may criminalize countries without addressing root causes of drug issues.
- I believe a more empathetic policy would be beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Retired (Dallas, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I've seen what narcotics do to young people in my area.
- I fully support any policy that can reduce drug availability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The global implications might be interesting, but I doubt it affects my daily life.
- These policies often don't lead to real changes for Americans.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Substance Abuse Counselor (New York, NY)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Limiting the source of drugs is good, but support services need to be enhanced too.
- I've seen mixed results from such policies in the past.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Environmental Scientist (Denver, CO)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a step toward more stringent chemical regulations, which I welcome.
- I hope it leads to safer communities and environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $28000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $29000000 (Low: $26000000, High: $36000000)
Year 3: $30000000 (Low: $27000000, High: $37000000)
Year 5: $32000000 (Low: $29000000, High: $39000000)
Year 10: $35000000 (Low: $31000000, High: $42000000)
Year 100: $70000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $80000000)
Key Considerations
- Countries receiving foreign aid may face economic destabilization if aid is reduced, potentially impacting US geopolitical interests.
- The cost-effectiveness of using trade restrictions as a tool for drug control needs evaluation.
- Potential impacts on US diplomatic relationships and alliances are important to consider.
- Enforcement and compliance monitoring costs could fluctuate significantly with policy changes.