Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4300

Bill Overview

Title: Bahrain Security Cooperation Improvement Act

Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to report to Congress on (1) the upgrades necessary to enable the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet to address emerging threats in its area of responsibility, and (2) DOD efforts to increase defense and law enforcement exchanges between the United States and Bahrain. (Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet.)

Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]

Target Audience

Population: Residents and citizens in the broader Middle Eastern region

Estimated Size: 10000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Navy Officer (Virginia)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about increased deployments and the strain it may put on my family life.
  • Upgrades to the fleet are necessary for emerging threats, so it could improve our operational capabilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Defense Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhanced cooperation could stabilize the region, which is beneficial.
  • It might lead to more work but also increases job stability and relevance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 7

Software Engineer (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I might see increased project demands at work, but I work remotely so there's little direct impact.
  • It's a positive move for national security, as long as it does not increase tensions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 7

Oil Industry Executive (Texas)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Improved U.S.-Bahrain relations could stabilize oil transportation routes.
  • The impacts are indirect, but business strategies rely on stable geopolitical climates.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Freelance Journalist (New York)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy may offer new angles for my reporting.
  • Geopolitical shifts influence my career, though not necessarily my personal life.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Military Spouse (Florida)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More deployments mean more strain, but they might be necessary for safety.
  • The policy could subtly affect family stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Business Owner (New York)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Security cooperation might reduce shipping risk, but costs could rise.
  • It's a minor factor among many business variables.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

International Relations Student (North Carolina)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's an interesting case study for my research.
  • Not expecting significant personal changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 7

Retired Military (Illinois)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My past experience tells me increased collaboration can be beneficial, but it's complex.
  • This policy could strengthen security but might escalate regional arms races.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Tech Consultant (Washington)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased U.S. defense activities can open up job opportunities.
  • I'm watching for how this impacts defense tech.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)

Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations