Bill Overview
Title: Bahrain Security Cooperation Improvement Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to report to Congress on (1) the upgrades necessary to enable the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet to address emerging threats in its area of responsibility, and (2) DOD efforts to increase defense and law enforcement exchanges between the United States and Bahrain. (Bahrain hosts the Fifth Fleet.)
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: Residents and citizens in the broader Middle Eastern region
Estimated Size: 10000
- Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, making it a strategic location for U.S. military operations in the Middle East.
- The Fifth Fleet's area of responsibility includes critical maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global oil transportation.
- U.S. security interests in the Middle East rely heavily on the Fifth Fleet's operations.
- Improving security cooperation with Bahrain could impact regional stability, which affects global markets and geopolitical dynamics.
- The population of Bahrain is approximately 1.7 million people, who may experience the direct impact of increased U.S. military presence and collaboration.
- The broader Middle Eastern region, with a population exceeding 400 million, could be indirectly impacted through shifts in military strategy and security dynamics.
Reasoning
- The policy is mainly relevant to military personnel, defense industry professionals, and citizens with ties to Bahrain or interests in the Middle East. Thus, the interviewed population should include these groups.
- Given the limited budget, the immediate direct impact on individuals in the U.S. might be minimal except for those directly involved in military and defense activities.
- Bahrain's strategic location may lead to adjustments in military operations, which could affect the deployment and workload of military personnel.
- Improvements in security cooperation can indirectly affect well-being by influencing regional stability and international relations, impacting global markets.
Simulated Interviews
Navy Officer (Virginia)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about increased deployments and the strain it may put on my family life.
- Upgrades to the fleet are necessary for emerging threats, so it could improve our operational capabilities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Defense Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhanced cooperation could stabilize the region, which is beneficial.
- It might lead to more work but also increases job stability and relevance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Engineer (California)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might see increased project demands at work, but I work remotely so there's little direct impact.
- It's a positive move for national security, as long as it does not increase tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Texas)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improved U.S.-Bahrain relations could stabilize oil transportation routes.
- The impacts are indirect, but business strategies rely on stable geopolitical climates.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Freelance Journalist (New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may offer new angles for my reporting.
- Geopolitical shifts influence my career, though not necessarily my personal life.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Military Spouse (Florida)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More deployments mean more strain, but they might be necessary for safety.
- The policy could subtly affect family stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Business Owner (New York)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Security cooperation might reduce shipping risk, but costs could rise.
- It's a minor factor among many business variables.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
International Relations Student (North Carolina)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's an interesting case study for my research.
- Not expecting significant personal changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired Military (Illinois)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My past experience tells me increased collaboration can be beneficial, but it's complex.
- This policy could strengthen security but might escalate regional arms races.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Consultant (Washington)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased U.S. defense activities can open up job opportunities.
- I'm watching for how this impacts defense tech.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Importance of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Middle Eastern security and global oil transport,