Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4263

Bill Overview

Title: Federal Firearm Licensing Act

Description: This bill establishes a federal firearm licensing program through which an individual must obtain a federal firearm license from the Department of Justice prior to purchasing or receiving a firearm. To be eligible for such a license, the individual must have completed training in firearms safety and be subject to a background investigation and criminal history check.

Sponsors: Sen. Booker, Cory A. [D-NJ]

Target Audience

Population: people interested in buying or transferring ownership of firearms

Estimated Size: 80000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

police officer (Alabama)

Age: 54 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supportive, believes it will ensure responsible ownership.
  • Concerned about increased paperwork but sees value in standardized training.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

gun shop owner (Texas)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about impact on business complexity and flow.
  • Appreciates the emphasis on safety, expects initial economic impact but long-term trust gain.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

firearms enthusiast (Virginia)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Frustrated with additional steps but recognizes potential for increased safety.
  • Thinks it may slow down his purchasing plans.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

teacher (California)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Supports the policy if it can reduce gun violence.
  • Indirectly impacted through community safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

college student (New York)

Age: 23 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Not personally impacted, sees policy as beneficial from a societal standpoint.
  • Aspires to work in policy, views federal coordination positively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

rancher (Montana)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Highly skeptical, views as infringement on gun rights.
  • Additional bureaucracy seen as burdensome, despite understanding safety arguments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

retired (Illinois)

Age: 61 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hopes the policy reduces illegal gun access.
  • Personally unlikely to be directly affected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

military veteran (Florida)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Believes in the right to bear arms, sees it as slightly protective against misuse.
  • Accepts need for reasonable scrutiny but concerned about redundant bureaucracy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

student (Ohio)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sees licensing as a responsible step for first-time buyers.
  • Might delay her plans to acquire firearms for sporting events.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

small business owner (Georgia)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Believes it might decrease impulsive gun buying, but fears loss of customers to cumbersome processes.
  • Sees potential long-term benefits if it leads to more informed buyers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)

Year 2: $1800000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $2300000000)

Year 3: $1600000000 (Low: $1100000000, High: $2100000000)

Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)

Year 10: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1600000000)

Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)

Key Considerations