Bill Overview
Title: Fire Ready Nation Act of 2022
Description: This bill establishes fire weather programs and activities to improve fire forecasting and readiness. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shall establish a coordinated fire weather services program within NOAA to support readiness, responsiveness, and overall resilience of the United States to wildfires, fire weather, smoke, and other associated conditions, hazards, and impacts in built and natural environments (including at the wildland-urban interface); develop a comprehensive, centralized, and publicly accessible digital presence designed to promote usability of the services, tools, data, and information produced by the program; seek to acquire sufficient high-performance computing resources and capacity for research, operations, and data storage in support of the program; establish a fire weather testbed to evaluate the accuracy and usability of technology, models, fire weather products and services, and other research to accelerate the implementation and use of new capabilities by NOAA, federal and land management agencies, and other relevant stakeholders; conduct annual post-fire-weather season surveys and assessments; establish an Incident Meteorologist Service within the National Weather Service (NWS); assess resources, personnel, procedures, and activities necessary to maximize the functionality and utility of the automated surface observing system and implement a plan that addresses the findings of the assessment; and conduct a workforce support services assessment of NWS employees engaged in emergency response.
Sponsors: Sen. Cantwell, Maria [D-WA]
Target Audience
Population: People living in regions prone to wildfires
Estimated Size: 120000000
- The bill aims to improve fire forecasting and readiness, primarily impacting regions prone to wildfires, such as the western United States and other fire-prone areas globally.
- Globally, wildfires impact large populations, including those in Australia, the Amazon, Europe, and Africa, making the potential global target population significant.
- The Fire Ready Nation Act of 2022 establishes programs that can benefit anyone living in areas prone to wildfires through better forecasting and readiness.
- NOAA's expansion of its fire weather services indicates a focus on both urban and wildland areas, affecting a broad demographic, including urban and rural populations.
Reasoning
- The population is distinguished by geographic vulnerability to wildfires, mainly in the western United States where a significant portion resides.
- The policy focuses on improving readiness and response to fire conditions, which implies greater impact on those whose safety, property, or livelihood is directly threatened by wildfires. This includes professionals in land management and emergency response as well as residents.
- Given the budget constraints, the policy aims to provide widespread but basic improvements in fire forecasting and readiness in year 1, expanding over 10 years. These impacts, while substantial, will likely not reach every individual as 'high,' but rather range from 'low' to 'medium.'
- The uplift in wellbeing for those directly affected by improved forecasting may reflect reduced anxiety related to fire threat recognition and timely warnings, potentially saving lives and property over time.
Simulated Interviews
Environmental Consultant (San Francisco, California)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe improvements in fire forecasting are essential. It helps us plan restoration projects better and allocate resources effectively.
- The policy should reduce economic losses and protect the environment by preventing damage beforehand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Park Ranger (Bend, Oregon)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhanced fire readiness will significantly improve safety for visitors and staff alike.
- While we have protocols, better forecasting can make evacuations and management more effective.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Firefighter (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The additional resources and forecasting advancements are crucial in reducing the risks and uncertainties we face on-duty.
- Timely data can save us from dangerous situations and improve efficiency in tackling fires.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Retired (Flagstaff, Arizona)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a resident in a high-risk area, I'm hopeful this policy will enhance our community's evacuation plans and safety.
- Better fire weather information will help me make more informed decisions during fire seasons.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Homeowner Association Manager (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could improve our insurance premiums if risk is better managed.
- Ensuring our community has real-time information could prevent panic during fire outbreaks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Agricultural Worker (Kalispell, Montana)
Age: 45 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Better fire weather forecasting is vital for our crop management and preventing losses.
- Knowing we have improved predictive capabilities justifies investments in our land.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Meteorologist (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Having access to NOAA's improved services will enhance our reporting and public service during the fire seasons.
- The upgrades are a needed modernization that's overdue, reflecting better safety for all.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Real Estate Developer (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improved readiness and resilience is an added value in marketing and developing properties.
- Helps in planning safer, sustainable communities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Data Scientist (Denver, Colorado)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The Fire Ready Nation Act could provide crucial data for our models, improving their accuracy and value to clients.
- We need continuous updates and reports so we can adjust our risk calculations accordingly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Student (Portland, Oregon)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The act is likely to contribute significant data and insights to my field of study, facilitating more research and better understanding.
- As a citizen, knowing forecasts are more reliable gives a sense of security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $155000000 (Low: $105000000, High: $210000000)
Year 3: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $220000000)
Year 5: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $230000000)
Year 10: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 100: $25000000000 (Low: $20000000000, High: $30000000000)
Key Considerations
- The effectiveness of the fire readiness programs is contingent upon technological advancements and the ability to effectively integrate them into current systems.
- Long-term savings depend on the successful reduction of wildfire severity and frequency, which could result in substantial economic benefits.
- Collaboration with other federal, state, and local agencies is essential for maximizing the utility and reach of these services.