Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4184

Bill Overview

Title: Blair Holt Firearm Owner Licensing and Record of Sale Act of 2022

Description: This bill establishes new requirements and restrictions with respect to the sale, transfer, and possession of firearms. Among the requirements, the bill generally requires owners of certain firearms—handguns and semiautomatic rifles capable of accepting a detachable ammunition feeding device—to obtain a license, and establishes background check requirements for firearm transfers between private parties.

Sponsors: Sen. Duckworth, Tammy [D-IL]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals affected by firearm licensing and transfer regulations globally

Estimated Size: 120000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Rancher (Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I understand the need for safety but this adds more hoops for law-abiding citizens.
  • In rural areas, we rely on firearms for various purposes, not just defense.
  • I worry about delayed access during an emergency because of these licenses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

Police Officer (California)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could make communities safer by ensuring responsible ownership.
  • I believe law enforcement will see benefits in managing firearm-related incidents.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Gun Shop Owner (Ohio)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's going to complicate my business with more paperwork and possibly reduce sales.
  • There's a risk this might drive customers underground or to other states.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired (Florida)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I won't be directly affected, but I'm glad new owners will need checks.
  • As a society, increased safety is worth the extra checks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Student (New York)

Age: 23 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I won't be affected personally, I hope this policy reduces campus violence.
  • More responsible ownership could prevent guns from getting into the wrong hands.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Hunter (Nebraska)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hunting and competition guns are part of my lifestyle, this doesn't change much.
  • I do think professional ownership checks can cut down on illegal access.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 8

School Teacher (Illinois)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any step towards making schools safer for our children is positive.
  • I believe this policy helps keep firearms with those who are trained and responsible.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 5

Commercial Fisherman (Alaska)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Local enforcement of these policies could be challenging in remote areas.
  • May lead to an undue burden if access to licenses isn't easy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Software Engineer (Michigan)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Unlikely to be directly impacted but supports measures for safer community environments.
  • Believes rigorous checks are vital for maintaining order and safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Firearm Instructor (Arizona)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My courses focus on safety, and licensing aligns with this message.
  • My students might face more administrative hurdles.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Year 2: $180000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $230000000)

Year 3: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $220000000)

Year 5: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $210000000)

Year 10: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $150000000)

Key Considerations