Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4151

Bill Overview

Title: Stop Pills That Kill Act

Description: This bill increases criminal penalties for offenses relating to the manufacture of fentanyl or counterfeit substances. It also establishes requirements for federal agencies to address the use of counterfeit substances. Specifically, the bill applies an increased criminal penalty for possessing, manufacturing, or distributing certain equipment or materials that are used to illegally manufacture fentanyl, an analogue of fentanyl, or a counterfeit substance (the increased penalty is currently limited to offenses involving methamphetamine). The bill also requires the United States Sentencing Commission to review sentencing guidelines and amend them, if appropriate, to include an enhanced penalty for those who knowingly misrepresent counterfeit pills that have fentanyl, a fentanyl analogue, or methamphetamine as legitimate pills. The Drug Enforcement Administration must establish and implement a plan to address counterfeit fentanyl or methamphetamine substances through law enforcement action and education and prevention efforts. In addition, the Department of Justice must annually report on the collection of counterfeit fentanyl or methamphetamine substances by law enforcement and on related prosecutions.

Sponsors: Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or affected by the distribution and misuse of fentanyl or counterfeit substances

Estimated Size: 1500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Former factory worker (West Virginia)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think increasing penalties might make people scared to deal, but addicts will always find a way to get what they need if nothing else changes.
  • Rehabilitation and support have been crucial for my recovery more than fear of jail time.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Law enforcement officer (California)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill could make a real difference if it's enforced properly. We need the resources and support for these initiatives to tackle the root of the problem.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Pharmacist (Ohio)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tougher punishment could help, but what we really need is better tracking and control from the source.
  • Educational initiatives will help professionals like me spot counterfeit medications sooner.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 8

College student (New Hampshire)

Age: 24 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful this will push dealers out of our communities, but we really need more recovery programs.
  • Loss like mine is devastating and extends beyond just penalties for dealers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Small business owner (Indiana)

Age: 53 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like this can help rebuild communities if effectively managed.
  • I worry if harsh penalties without other support might just isolate who need help.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Community organizer (Texas)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Education and prevention are key. Penalties alone cannot fix systemic issues.
  • I hope the policy's education funds are utilized properly in communities like mine.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 7 6

Retired (Florida)

Age: 66 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More needs to be done to protect young people. Grandparents like me are just doing what we can.
  • Increasing penalties hopefully deters some, but each case needs more care and understanding.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 7

Healthcare worker (New York)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see firsthand the destruction caused by drugs like fentanyl.
  • A comprehensive approach beyond penalties is necessary for real change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 7

High school teacher (Kentucky)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Reducing counterfeit distribution could make our schools safer.
  • However, tackling addiction requires more than relying on punitive actions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 6

High school student (Arizona)

Age: 18 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope it makes a difference, and people think twice about taking and selling these drugs.
  • We need more support and places to turn for help, not just punishment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $31000000, High: $73000000)

Year 3: $54000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $76000000)

Year 5: $56000000 (Low: $33000000, High: $79000000)

Year 10: $60000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $85000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $150000000)

Key Considerations