Bill Overview
Title: Preventing Pretrial Gun Purchases Act
Description: This bill prohibits the sale or disposition of a firearm or ammunition to a person who is subject to a pretrial release order that prohibits the person from purchasing, possessing, or receiving firearms. It also establishes grants for states and Indian tribes to report information about pretrial release orders to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
Sponsors: Sen. Booker, Cory A. [D-NJ]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals under pretrial release orders with firearm restrictions
Estimated Size: 3000000
- The bill targets individuals who are under a pretrial release order that specifically prohibits them from purchasing, possessing, or receiving firearms.
- Legal and criminal justice systems in various states and tribal regions will be impacted due to the implementation and enforcement of the reporting requirements.
- Suppliers and sellers of firearms will be affected by the requirement to comply with the updated conditions for background checks.
- If the bill is successful at preventing firearms acquisition, there may be downstream impacts on communities, including potential reductions in violence.
- The population affected includes not only those directly restricted from purchasing firearms but also community members who might be affected by changes in gun purchase dynamics.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily targets individuals under pretrial release who are prohibited from purchasing firearms, which is estimated to be around 74,000 people directly, with broader community effects.
- The budget available suggests a targeted approach, potentially focused on high-crime areas or states with more robust reporting systems.
- Surveying people both directly affected and indirectly affected (such as community members) provides insight into the wider societal impact and efficacy of the policy.
- The policy may positively impact community wellbeing if successful in reducing gun violence, but it could also introduce administrative burdens for firearms sellers.
- The effect on wellbeing will likely vary among different demographics, with those living in high-crime areas potentially experiencing a significant positive impact.
Simulated Interviews
Firearms Dealer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy will increase administrative tasks for my shop, making it harder to keep up with sales.
- However, I understand the importance of preventing dangerous individuals from accessing firearms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Community Advocate (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is essential for community safety. Preventing potentially dangerous individuals from accessing firearms could reduce violence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Police Officer (Dallas, TX)
Age: 43 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Anything that helps reduce gun violence is a positive. But, this needs proper enforcement and funding.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Gun Rights Activist (Rural Wyoming)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy feels like an overreach and makes it harder for law-abiding citizens to purchase firearms.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Public Defender (New York, NY)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy can be unfair to those still presumed innocent and adds another hurdle for my clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
College Student (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think this policy is a good step towards reducing gun violence. However, it should ensure that it doesn't unfairly target individuals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
School Teacher (Detroit, MI)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our schools need to be safe from potential threats. This policy should help make that a reality.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
State Legislator (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a necessary policy to preserve public safety, but it must be implemented carefully to respect rights.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired Law Enforcement (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The reduction in gun access should positively impact high-crime rates, but it's crucial to secure funding for it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Nurse (Milwaukee, WI)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a healthcare worker, I see the aftermath of violence daily. This policy could help save lives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 3: $12000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $16000000)
Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $14000000)
Year 10: $7000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $11000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $9000000)
Key Considerations
- The implementation of grants for information reporting to NICS will be a key driver of costs.
- Coordination with states and tribal authorities will be critical for successful implementation.
- Monitoring and evaluation of the bill's effectiveness will determine long-term financial effects.
- The socio-political impact of this bill needs consideration given current debates on gun control.