Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4144

Bill Overview

Title: ICEE HOT Act of 2022

Description: This bill revises the State Energy Efficient Appliance Rebate Program by allowing states to provide rebates to distributors and original equipment manufacturers of certain electrical heating appliances (e.g., heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, and heat pump clothes dryers) that are made in the United States.

Sponsors: Sen. Markey, Edward J. [D-MA]

Target Audience

Population: People employed in manufacturing and distribution of electrical heating appliances

Estimated Size: 130000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Plant Manager at a Heat Pump Manufacturing Plant (Clinton, South Carolina)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy seems beneficial as it might boost production demand for our heat pumps.
  • I'm excited about potential business expansion and job security for my team.
  • However, there's a concern about whether the rebate distribution will be fair across manufacturers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Sales Representative for an Appliance Distributor (Detroit, Michigan)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could increase demand for our products, which is great.
  • I hope our company can qualify for the rebates early to compete effectively.
  • However, the complexity of compliance could be burdensome.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Owner of a Small HVAC Installation Business (Austin, Texas)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could be a game changer if it leads to more affordable heat pumps for my clients.
  • I'm hopeful for increased customer interest in energy-efficient installations.
  • Rebate policies have been hit or miss in the past, so implementation will be key.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Appliance Store Owner (Portland, Oregon)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Rebates might increase demand, but I worry about competing with bigger stores for limited stock.
  • Access to U.S.-made heat pumps could be beneficial, need wholesale pricing to stay competitive.
  • Overall, this could help make energy-efficient appliances more mainstream.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Junior Engineer in an HVAC Firm (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Excited about the policy's focus on innovation and local production incentives.
  • Hope that this pushes further green technology developments in our field.
  • An increase in government support can energize our R&D workload positively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired Electrical Engineer (Rochester, New York)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a good step towards incentivizing local production, which we've needed for years.
  • It's unclear how retirees might benefit unless energy costs drop generally.
  • I hope the rebates do encourage more domestic jobs and production.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Environmental Policy Analyst (Burlington, Vermont)

Age: 35 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This aligns well with larger trends towards sustainable energy practices and is a positive move.
  • The focus on US manufacturing is essential for local economic growth.
  • Effectiveness will depend on execution and actual uptake of the rebates.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Middle School Science Teacher (Atlanta, Georgia)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Educational opportunities about energy efficiency could increase as products become more mainstream.
  • I might look into more energy-efficient options for my home.
  • The policy is a positive nudge for broader awareness of sustainable practices among families.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Regional Manager at a Retail Chain (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could impact how we stock products, focusing on US-made options if they prove cost-effective.
  • A challenge will be managing rebate-related logistics and keeping shelves stocked.
  • Long-term competition from purely online retailers might intensify though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Appliance Repair Technician (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More efficient products might mean fewer breakdowns but also a need to specialize in new technologies.
  • There's potential for growth in service contracts if new installations rise.
  • The policy might open up more opportunities to work with local suppliers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $130000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $150000000)

Year 2: $110000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $130000000)

Year 3: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $120000000)

Year 5: $90000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $110000000)

Year 10: $80000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $100000000)

Year 100: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)

Key Considerations