Bill Overview
Title: Economic Statecraft for the Twenty-First Century Act
Description: This bill addresses various economic issues related to foreign policy. For example, the bill (1) establishes the Countering Economic Coercion Task Force to oversee the implementation of an integrated U.S. government strategy to respond to any economic practices by China that are abusive, arbitrary, and contrary to international rules; (2) requires U.S. Customs and Border Protection to increase inspections of goods imported from countries identified as a top source of counterfeit goods; (3) requires the Department of State to develop a strategy for engaging with other countries to institute controls on the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China; and (4) requires the President to support a 10th general capital increase for the Inter-American Development Bank.
Sponsors: Sen. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ]
Target Audience
Population: People who are associated with trade and economic activities between the U.S., China, and Latin America
Estimated Size: 80000000
- The bill targets economic practices by China and aims to respond to these practices by implementing a strategy. This will involve economic sectors in China engaged in practices deemed abusive or arbitrary.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection is tasked with increasing inspections of counterfeit goods, impacting consumers in the U.S., and companies exporting goods to the U.S., especially related to counterfeit items.
- The requirement for the Department of State to develop a strategy to control the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China will impact the global semiconductor market, affecting manufacturers and suppliers of these equipment worldwide.
- The bill supports a capital increase for the Inter-American Development Bank, which could influence countries in Latin America and the Caribbean that are beneficiaries of this bank's programs.
Reasoning
- The bill aims to influence economic systems and trade primarily involving the U.S., China, and Latin American countries which could have varying impacts on different segments of the U.S. population.
- It's essential to cover perspectives of those who are directly involved in or influenced by these economic relationships, including consumers, businesses dealing with imports and exports, and the broader American economy.
- Since the bill focuses on countering specific economic practices and instituting control measures, individuals involved in industries related to these areas will be of varied impact levels - from high to none at all.
- The legislation's impact might vary based on how these measures influence trade dynamics, consumer prices, business operations, and the broader economy over time.
- To ensure a representative understanding, people from diverse backgrounds with varying stakes in the outcomes, ranging from direct economic engagement with China and Latin America to those indirectly impacted via market changes, should be considered.
Simulated Interviews
Port Inspector (Long Beach, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could mean more work but job security.
- Counterfeit goods increase risks for consumers, so increased inspections are positive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Semiconductor Engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Export controls could impact business operations negatively.
- Long-term strategy might affect global competition balance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Import/Export Business Owner (New York, NY)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased inspections might disrupt supply chain initially.
- Long-term benefits could include fairer competition.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Financial Analyst (Miami, FL)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Investment from the Inter-American Development Bank is promising.
- Potential fluctuations in the market will need careful management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Startup Founder (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply chain uncertainties can affect product development timelines.
- Policy needs clarity around export restrictions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Economics Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy is a sensible approach to handling economic coercion.
- It will set important precedents in international trade law.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Retail Store Manager (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Counterfeit restrictions could increase trust in products.
- Initial supply hurdles might impact store sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Logistics Manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy might increase regulation burden.
- Efficient inspection strategies could mitigate disruption.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Policy Analyst (Chicago, IL)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Intervention is necessary to address economic coercion threats.
- Long-term global trade relations may shift.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Customs Compliance Specialist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy updates require careful compliance strategies.
- Could streamline enforcement of import regulations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $600000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $700000000)
Year 2: $650000000 (Low: $550000000, High: $750000000)
Year 3: $700000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $800000000)
Year 5: $750000000 (Low: $650000000, High: $850000000)
Year 10: $1000000000 (Low: $900000000, High: $1100000000)
Year 100: $2000000000 (Low: $1800000000, High: $2200000000)
Key Considerations
- Political relationships with China and other affected countries.
- The technological capacity of agencies handling inspections and strategy implementation.
- Coordination among multiple governmental and international entities.
- Potential resistance from industries affected by export controls.