Bill Overview
Title: Protection of Civilians in Military Operations Act
Description: This bill implements policies and procedures within the Department of Defense (DOD) related to the harm of civilians during U.S. military operations.
Sponsors: Sen. Warren, Elizabeth [D-MA]
Target Audience
Population: Civilians in areas of U.S. military operations
Estimated Size: 5000
- The bill affects civilians who are in areas of military operations conducted by the U.S. military.
- The scope includes civilians globally as U.S. military operations can occur anywhere around the world.
- The bill is about reducing harm to civilians, so it has implications for those living in conflict zones.
- U.S. military presence is high in places like the Middle East, parts of Africa, and certain areas in Asia which may have ongoing military operations.
Reasoning
- Given the budget constraints of $450 million USD in year 1 and $3.575 billion USD over 10 years, the implementation of the Protection of Civilians in Military Operations Act will be strategic, focusing on enhancing procedures and technologies that reduce civilian harm.
- The policy primarily affects civilians in conflict zones where U.S. military operations are conducted, which includes expatriates, aid workers, and journalists among the American population.
- The estimated number of Americans in these zones is around 5,000, a small fraction of the global civilian population in affected areas, which is estimated to be around 25 million.
- The interviews focus on a diverse cross-section of American citizens who might be in or have connections to conflict zones.
- The goal is to understand the anticipated impact on their wellbeing scores before and after policy implementation.
- Some people may not perceive an immediate impact, while those with direct ties to military operation areas might see significant changes in perceived safety and wellbeing.
Simulated Interviews
Journalist (California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel my work often puts me at risk, but it's important to cover these stories.
- The policy could make operations safer for civilians and journalists like me, which is reassuring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Humanitarian aid worker (New York)
Age: 26 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 3
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The presence of military operations often complicates our efforts in delivering aid.
- Safety is a massive concern, and any steps to protect civilians can make a big difference.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 2 |
Government Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is crucial for improving international perceptions and ethical military practices.
- Its impact might not be directly felt in my personal life but benefits U.S. diplomatic relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Military Personnel (Texas)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Minimizing civilian harm is a priority, which reflects on troop morale and mission success.
- Training and implementing these procedures could improve our operational outcomes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Graduate Student (Colorado)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy changes like this are a step towards global peace and ethical military standards.
- I hope this inspires similar policies worldwide.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Military Contractor (Virginia)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may drive demand for new technologies that ensure civilian safety in operations.
- This is both a business opportunity and a moral imperative.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Foreign Correspondent (Florida)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I often witness the impacts of military operations on civilians, and it's devastating.
- This policy could change things for the better, providing a layer of protection for civilians.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 3 |
Retired (Illinois)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I constantly worry about my children's safety abroad.
- Anything that can protect civilians in those areas is welcome news.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
NGO Worker (Nevada)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Civilian safety is always on our minds when working in these regions.
- Policies like this validate our efforts and can transform on-ground realities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We are always looking for opportunities to integrate AI to reduce harm in conflict zones.
- A policy encouraging harm reduction could lead to significant advances in this field.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $450000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $600000000)
Year 2: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $550000000)
Year 3: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $550000000)
Year 5: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $500000000)
Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $450000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The policy must balance effective military operations with civilian safety, requiring robust operational guidelines.
- Training and technology upgrades could encounter implementation delays or higher than expected costs.
- International collaboration could be a key determinant of the policy's success, impacting both costs and operational effectiveness.