Bill Overview
Title: A bill to terminate General License No. 8A of the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Department of the Treasury and require the application of sanctions under Executive Order 14024 to the Russian financial institutions listed in General License No. 8A.
Description: This bill terminates General License No. 8A, which was issued by the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control to authorize energy-related transactions involving specified Russian financial institutions. Further, the bill applies property-blocking sanctions to those Russian financial institutions listed in the license.
Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]
Target Audience
Population: People and entities involved in energy-related transactions worldwide
Estimated Size: 5000000
- General License No. 8A currently allows US persons and entities to conduct energy-related transactions with specified Russian financial institutions.
- The termination of this license means that those involved in the energy sector, including companies and individuals based in countries that engage in transactions with Russian financial institutions, will no longer be able to conduct these transactions legally.
- The targeting of Russian financial institutions with property-blocking sanctions under Executive Order 14024 will impact not only these institutions but also their clients and associates globally.
- Since the bill affects energy transaction authorization, it can indirectly impact global energy markets and prices, affecting consumers and businesses worldwide.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily targets U.S. entities and individuals who are engaged in energy-related transactions with Russian financial institutions. This does not apply to the entire U.S. population but does impact a significant number of stakeholders within the energy sector and those financially connected to it.
- Given the budget constraints, the number of individuals or businesses that can be directly supported through any financial assistance due to adverse impacts of the policy is limited.
- The potential for secondary impacts exists, particularly in terms of global energy prices, which could affect American consumers more broadly through higher energy costs. However, these effects might not immediately translate to a noticeable change in self-reported well-being.
- We've considered varying degrees of involvement in these transactions, from direct stakeholders (like employees in the sector) to consumers potentially affected by wider economic shifts.
Simulated Interviews
Energy sector analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy causes concern as it disrupts existing business models and could lead to layoffs in firms like mine.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Investment banker (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I anticipate market volatility. It complicates the investment landscape, but we can adjust strategies accordingly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Energy consultant (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My work will likely increase as companies seek guidance, but uncertainty is stressful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Petroleum engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could jeopardize certain projects, but may drive new domestic opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Environmental scientist (Denver, CO)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If it prompts more sustainable practices, it could be positive, but there are economic risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired oil executive (Tulsa, OK)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These changes are significant for the industry, yet I'm more insulated due to my retirement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Graduate student (Boston, MA)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a fascinating case study, though my everyday life remains unchanged.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Small business owner (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 46 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There may be opportunities in advising about domestic compliance and sourcing alternatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Policy analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This adds a layer to the complexity of international energy trade that will need close monitoring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Real estate developer (Dallas, TX)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Indirect impacts could increase construction costs if energy prices rise, but it's manageable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 2: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Termination of General License No. 8A might lead to significant disruption in global energy markets.
- Potential backlash from entities dependent on energy transactions allowed by the license.
- Need for increased enforcement and regulatory measures to ensure compliance with new sanctions.
- Possible negative impacts on US energy companies currently utilizing the license, affecting domestic employment.