Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4046

Bill Overview

Title: Simplify, Don’t Amplify the IRS Act

Description: This bill limits Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement authority and modifies certain IRS reporting requirements. It also eliminates certain restrictions on the use of coronavirus recovery funds. Among other provisions, the bill increases the gross receipts reporting threshold for certain religious and charitable organizations from $5,000 to $50,000; generally increases penalties for unauthorized disclosure of taxpayer information and for such disclosures by tax return preparers; requires the IRS to establish a fellowship program to recruit private sector tax experts to create a task force to. among other things, educate IRS employees on emerging issues, perform audits, and address offshore tax evasion; and sets forth provisions for reducing improper payments to taxpayers. The bill also requires the IRS to report annually on the tax gap estimate for the most recent taxable year. The IRS must use artificial intelligence to calculate an estimate of the tax gap. The bill defines tax gap as the difference between tax liabilities owed to the United States and those liabilities actually collected. The bill restricts funding for IRS audits and enforcement until the IRS publishes an updated tax gap projection.

Sponsors: Sen. Braun, Mike [R-IN]

Target Audience

Population: Global taxpayers and recipients of US tax-related payments

Estimated Size: 148000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Tax Preparer (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a tax preparer, I'm worried about the increased penalties. We already operate under tight scrutiny and this adds more stress.
  • The fellowship program seems like it would be good for the IRS but unsure of its direct impact on us.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Retired Accountant (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 63 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Raising the threshold for reporting is a smart move for charities, it frees up resources to focus on their mission.
  • I'm skeptical about the use of AI; I hope it's accurate in estimating the tax gap.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Non-profit manager (Salt Lake City, UT)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is great news for us. The reduced reporting will save us a lot of paperwork.
  • More resources can be put toward our services rather than administrative tasks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Freelance Tax Consultant (Chicago, IL)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The changes in focus and fellowship program could bring interesting insights and provide us with new tools.
  • Worried about potential increased workload due to more audits being done with AI and tax gap predictions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Tech Company Executive (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm glad to see the IRS modernizing with AI, which might reduce the administrative burden at a global operational level.
  • It might become easier to plan with clearer projections of the tax gap.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Self-employed online retailer (Austin, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It seems like the changes will not directly impact me much, though any simplification in IRS processes is always welcome.
  • Concerns about increased penalties make me wary of accounting errors. I have to watch for such changes closely.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 7 5

University Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 47 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The education component of the fellowship program seems promising.
  • I wonder how effective AI will be at calculating the tax gap.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Real Estate Investor (Miami, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could be beneficial overall for IRS relations if it leads to more efficiency or clear legislation.
  • AI-generated tax gap analysis could also provide a clearer, more predictable tax environment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 8

College Student (Seattle, WA)

Age: 21 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's difficult to understand all the implications, but any move towards reducing improper payments seems good.
  • The fellowship sounds like an exciting opportunity. I'm interested in seeing how the IRS modernizes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Small Business Owner (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 51 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Raising the reporting threshold is great. It helps businesses focus more on operation rather than just paperwork.
  • I'm cautious because reducing enforcement could mean less support in dealing with IRS complexities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $400000000)

Year 2: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)

Year 3: $365000000 (Low: $260000000, High: $470000000)

Year 5: $375000000 (Low: $270000000, High: $480000000)

Year 10: $380000000 (Low: $275000000, High: $490000000)

Year 100: $400000000 (Low: $290000000, High: $510000000)

Key Considerations