Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Weapons Exports Act of 2022
Description: This bill directs the Department of Commerce to move Taiwan from Country Group A:6 to Country Group A:5 for the purposes of the Export Administration Regulations. (Generally, this reclassification allows Taiwan to acquire certain items and weapons systems subject to export controls on an expedited basis.)
Sponsors: Sen. Hawley, Josh [R-MO]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals residing in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill affects the export control status of Taiwan, impacting its ability to acquire U.S. weapons systems.
- The potential direct beneficiaries include the Taiwanese military and defense industry.
- Possible indirect impacts include the enhancement of Taiwan's defense capabilities.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects defense contractors and persons within the defense industry because it facilitates quicker transactions with Taiwan.
- US citizens generally may feel indirectly impacted by the policy's geopolitical implications, notably in the context of US-China relations.
- Some Americans, such as those in manufacturing jobs related to defense, might see a positive impact in terms of job security and economic growth.
- The policy also indirectly affects individuals invested in international relations, security, or foreign policy as a hobby or profession, due to potential shifts in regional dynamics.
- Wellbeing scores will consider both economic and social/political dimensions of individual perceptions.
Simulated Interviews
Defense Contractor Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy will enhance job security since it could increase the demand for our products.
- However, it might increase tensions with China, which is a bit concerning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems like a step towards strengthening our ties with Taiwan.
- There is a risk of escalating tension with China, which could destabilize regional security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Tech Industry Project Manager (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think our company might see more business due to increased demands from defense contractors.
- I'm a bit concerned about the long-term geopolitical consequences.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retired Military Officer (Columbus, OH)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Strategically, the policy could fortify Taiwan and serve US interests in Asia.
- However, it might antagonize China and increase regional tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
University Professor (San Diego, CA)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could enhance my research interest through practical case studies on US-Taiwan relations.
- However, increased tension with China is a concern for global stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Junior Policy Researcher (New York, NY)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find this policy helps in understanding current geopolitical shifts, aiding my work.
- Though, I'm wary of potential negative consequences with China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Social Activist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned the policy contributes to militarization in Asia, potentially increasing conflict.
- This does not align with my peace advocacy goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 5 |
Defense Industry Executive (Dallas, TX)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will likely boost our sales and open new opportunities in Taiwan.
- I'm aware of potential geopolitical risks, but economically, it's beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Environmental Science Lecturer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm indifferent as my work doesn't intersect much with defense policies.
- Still, I worry about environmental impacts associated with increased militarization.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Corporate Lawyer (Boston, MA)
Age: 41 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy may benefit some of my clients who manufacture technological components for defense use.
- I don't anticipate a significant impact on my personal wellbeing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2500000 (Low: $2000000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $1500000)
Year 3: $500000 (Low: $300000, High: $700000)
Year 5: $500000 (Low: $300000, High: $700000)
Year 10: $500000 (Low: $300000, High: $700000)
Year 100: $500000 (Low: $300000, High: $700000)
Key Considerations
- Possible geopolitical ramifications with China due to increased U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
- Strengthening of Taiwan's defense systems and the potential alteration of regional power dynamics.
- Economic benefits to U.S. defense contractors and associated industries.