Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3995

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to amend the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States to provide for permanent duty-free treatment on imports of basketballs.

Description: This bill modifies the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States to give imports of basketballs permanent duty-free treatment.

Sponsors: Sen. Paul, Rand [R-KY]

Target Audience

Population: People who play, sell, or manufacture basketballs

Estimated Size: 30000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Professional basketball player (Chicago, IL)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Reducing tariffs on basketballs is great, it'll make it cheaper for players to practice more.
  • It might lead to more affordable equipment deals for players like me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 6

Sports equipment retailer (Dallas, TX)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Duty-free imports will lower costs significantly and allow us to offer competitive prices.
  • However, hope this doesn't affect domestic job markets negatively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

Amateur basketball player (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I might save some money, but it isn't going to dramatically change my life.
  • More competitive pricing could be motivating.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

College basketball player (Boston, MA)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Lower costs could help our college team get better equipment.
  • Our funding might stretch further, allowing for improved training conditions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Sports equipment manufacturer (New York, NY)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerned about increased competition from global brands entering the market without tariffs.
  • Might need to innovate to stay competitive.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Retired, basketball enthusiast (Miami, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don’t buy basketballs often, so I don't expect a big change for me.
  • It’s still nice to have if prices drop. May buy more equipment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 4 3

Warehouse manager for a sports distributor (Seattle, WA)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about job impacts but see growth potential in handling more imports.
  • Need policies ensuring employment stability amidst market changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

High school basketball coach (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Cheaper basketballs would allow us to purchase more for training and games.
  • Looking forward to reallocating some budget towards other necessities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Basketball blogger (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This change can drive interesting shifts in market dynamics.
  • Globally sourced basketballs could bring variety to the consumer base.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Parent of a young basketball player (Denver, CO)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Even small savings on basketballs add up over time with family expenses.
  • Hope this extends to more sports equipment eventually.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Year 2: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Year 3: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Year 5: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Year 10: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Year 100: $800000 (Low: $500000, High: $1000000)

Key Considerations