Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3959

Bill Overview

Title: Stop Fentanyl Border Crossings Act

Description: This bill authorizes the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to restrict migration and imports from foreign countries to prevent the introduction of illicit drugs into the United States. Current law authorizes HHS to restrict migration and imports from foreign countries to prevent the introduction of communicable diseases. Under this bill, HHS may also restrict migration and imports from a country if HHS determines that the existence of substantial illicit drug smuggling from that country poses a risk to public health.

Sponsors: Sen. Hagerty, Bill [R-TN]

Target Audience

Population: People involved or affected by opioid and fentanyl distribution and use

Estimated Size: 20000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Community Health Worker (San Diego, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope this policy can curb the availability of fentanyl. It would make a huge difference in our community health efforts.
  • However, I'm concerned about the implications this might have on border communities reliant on trade and family ties across borders.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 4

Customs and Border Protection Officer (El Paso, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could make our job easier by reducing the volume of fentanyl we see crossing.
  • I'm worried it might cause slower processing times for legitimate travelers though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Logistics Manager (Detroit, MI)

Age: 49 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any policy affecting border control might slow down our supply chain, impacting our business negatively.
  • However, I understand the need to tackle drug smuggling, considering its impact on public health.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 6

College Student (New York, NY)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's devastating to think of more lives being lost to fentanyl.
  • I believe stronger measures might save lives, but we also need mental health support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Retired (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 56 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think it's important we're doing something about the drug problem affecting our community.
  • However, I'm not sure this policy alone will be enough without bigger systemic changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Nurse (Houston, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could potentially reduce the number of overdose cases we see, which is a welcome change.
  • I am worried about potential stigmatization and the need for tightly controlled enforcement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Importer (Miami, FL)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Restriction on imports might temporarily affect my business operations.
  • I hope there are measures in place to minimize disruptions and focus on illegal activities only.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 7

Law Enforcement Officer (Syracuse, NY)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful this will alleviate some pressure on our resources which are stretched thin dealing with fentanyl-related cases.
  • Success would depend on effective cross-agency cooperation and international alignment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 6

High School Teacher (Seattle, WA)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Anything helping reduce drug availability could significantly impact student lives positively.
  • Education and community engagement are also vital parts of the solution.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 25 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies affecting imports can influence the logistics tech industry unpredictably.
  • Efficient targeting will be key to ensure we address drug issues without harming tech-dependent sectors.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $80000000, High: $150000000)

Year 2: $110000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $160000000)

Year 3: $120000000 (Low: $95000000, High: $170000000)

Year 5: $140000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $190000000)

Year 10: $180000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $250000000)

Year 100: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $400000000)

Key Considerations