Bill Overview
Title: China Trade Cheating Restitution Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security to deposit into special accounts certain interest earned on antidumping and countervailing duties collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection on or after October 1, 2000. Currently, the applicable date is October 1, 2014. Amounts in special accounts are distributed to affected domestic producers.
Sponsors: Sen. Tester, Jon [D-MT]
Target Audience
Population: Domestic Producers Affected by Dumping and Subsidized Imports
Estimated Size: 50000
- Domestic producers affected by unfair trade practices are the primary beneficiaries of this act.
- Companies engaged in manufacturing processes where antidumping and countervailing duties are enforced are likely beneficiaries.
- Expanding the date back to October 1, 2000, increases the number of eligible producers compared to the current date of October 1, 2014.
- Companies in industries frequently impacted by foreign competition, such as steel or manufacturing, are likely to see financial restitution.
Reasoning
- To simulate the impact of the China Trade Cheating Restitution Act of 2022 on a diverse cross-section of US individuals, we must focus primarily on domestic producers in industries afflicted by unfair trade practices. These individuals are more likely to benefit directly due to financial restitutions.
- The impact of the policy would potentially be larger for individuals/companies that have been heavily affected by international competition and substantial duties collection. Thus, people in manufacturing, particularly in steel, textiles, and agriculture, could see positive impacts.
- Given the financial constraints of the policy, larger producers or those more heavily affected by antidumping duties might experience a high impact, while smaller producers or those less affected might see a low to medium impact due to finite resources being concentrated among the most affected.
- For this simulation, individuals from other parts of the population not directly receiving benefits will not see any immediate impact from the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Steel Manufacturer (Pittsburgh, PA)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a much-needed relief for us who've struggled against unfair competition from overseas.
- Receiving restitution will help our business reinvest in new technology and workforce training.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Textile Manufacturer (Houston, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If this policy can offer us a way to compete more fairly, it's going to be crucial for our survival.
- The date revision could mean significant restitution for our past losses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Electronics Manufacturer (Columbus, OH)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a boon to see this policy address the international competition issue.
- The extended date helps us capture more duties collected over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Apparel Manufacturer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any financial support resulting from this policy will allow us to sustain our operations amidst intense international competition.
- I believe this could help us focus on expanding local manufacturing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Automotive Parts Manufacturer (Detroit, MI)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's promising that this policy potentially addresses long-standing equity issues in the trade sector.
- Past affected companies will have a better chance to reclaim losses and compete.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Economist (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems well-directed to address unresolved trade tensions and compensates companies for past unfair treatment.
- The long-term implications could strengthen domestic resilience.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Agricultural Producer (Minneapolis, MN)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fair trade practices are essential, and this policy seems to address some of our historical challenges.
- A better future could be possible with this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Metal Component Manufacturer (Kansas City, MO)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We could possibly see a significant improvement in competition fairness due to this policy.
- The fact that this policy looks at older duty collections is promising.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Chemicals Manufacturer (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 49 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides an opportunity to stabilize our pricing and expand our workforce.
- The approach feels long overdue; it will help level the international playing field.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Footwear Manufacturer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might not affect us too much directly, but any move towards fairer trade is positive.
- Looking forward to seeing how this pans out and if more policies like this will follow.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Key Considerations
- The amount of interest accumulated on duties will depend heavily on changes in trade volume and interest rates, which can fluctuate unpredictably.
- Implementation efficiency of the Department of Homeland Security in managing the special accounts will affect administrative costs.
- The impact of duties and restitution on domestic industries may vary widely depending on specific market conditions and international trade dynamics.