Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3911

Bill Overview

Title: Shenandoah Mountain Act of 2022

Description: This bill establishes the Shenandoah Mountain National Scenic Area, consisting of approximately 92,449 acres of National Forest System land in the George Washington National Forest in Virginia. The bill designates specified lands in the George Washington National Forest as wilderness and as components of the National Wilderness Preservation System.

Sponsors: Sen. Kaine, Tim [D-VA]

Target Audience

Population: People who use, live near, or are affected by the Shenandoah Mountain National Scenic Area

Estimated Size: 800000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Local business owner (Harrisonburg, Virginia)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could be beneficial as it probably means more people coming to the area, increasing business opportunities.
  • I worry about potential restrictions that might limit my business scope.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Forestry worker (Charlottesville, Virginia)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am worried about the future of my job if the forest areas are restricted further.
  • There needs to be a balance between conservation and livelihoods.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 2 5
Year 20 2 4

Environmental advocate (Washington D.C.)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a significant step forward in protecting natural resources.
  • Designating new scenic areas could have a ripple effect on conservation efforts nationwide.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 7

Retired (West Virginia)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm glad these beautiful areas will be preserved.
  • I hope recreational access won't be limited even further.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 5

Government official (Roanoke, Virginia)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 1/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's exciting to see the potential for increased conservation but complicated by managing conflicting interests.
  • Resource allocation needs to be carefully planned to achieve policy goals.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 4

Tourist guide (Virginia Beach, Virginia)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • There is great potential for increased business if this new scenic area attracts more tourists.
  • I am concerned about whether infrastructure will match increased tourism demand.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Social worker (Richmond, Virginia)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is well-intentioned but might miss addressing the real needs of the people dependent on the forest resources.
  • I hope there's room for community involvement in future planning.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 3

Outdoor education coordinator (Baltimore, Maryland)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Greater access and preserved areas benefit the educational programs tremendously.
  • I hope program costs won't increase with tighter regulations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Farmer (Shenandoah, Virginia)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry that my land will face increased restrictions, affecting my farming operations.
  • Conservation is important, but so is supporting local livelihoods.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 3 5

Policy analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's crucial to evaluate the economic outcomes alongside environmental benefits.
  • The funding available seems modest given the scope of the land.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $3500000)

Year 2: $2800000 (Low: $2300000, High: $3300000)

Year 3: $2600000 (Low: $2100000, High: $3100000)

Year 5: $2500000 (Low: $2000000, High: $3000000)

Year 10: $2400000 (Low: $1900000, High: $2900000)

Year 100: $2000000 (Low: $1500000, High: $2500000)

Key Considerations