Bill Overview
Title: CURB CIPS Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes sanctions on any Chinese financial institution that uses China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System or Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages to conduct transactions with any Russian financial institution or financial institution affiliated with an entity holding itself out to be the government of (1) the Republic of South Ossetia- the State of Alania, (2) the Donetsk People's Republic, (3) the Luhansk People's Republic, (4) the Republic of Abkhazia, or (5) the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. For the purposes of this bill, a Chinese or Russian financial institution is one organized under the laws of, located in, or owned or controlled by China or Russia. Similarly, a financial institution is affiliated with one of the named entities if it is organized under the laws of, located in territory controlled by, or owned or controlled by such an entity.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by financial market changes due to the CURB CIPS Act
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill targets Chinese financial institutions using China's CIPS or Russia's SPFS for transactions with Russian financial entities.
- Sanctions might lead to a reduction in transaction capabilities or increased compliance costs for these financial institutions.
- The economies of China and Russia, especially sectors involved in cross-border payments, could be significantly impacted.
- Any businesses or individuals that rely on these financial institutions for cross-border transactions may face delays or added costs.
- Global financial markets could experience volatility as a result of tensions and realignments in financial flows.
- While direct effects on the global population are indirect, they could experience impacts via global market reactions and commodity prices.
Reasoning
- The CURB CIPS Act will primarily affect individuals and businesses engaged in international trade or financial transactions involving China and Russia.
- Direct impacts on American consumers may include increased prices for goods due to changes in trade costs and market volatility.
- Most Americans may not feel a direct impact, but those involved in industries such as finance and international trade might experience more pronounced effects.
- The policy's budget limits imply a focus on monitoring and compliance rather than direct economic intervention or subsidies for impacted industries.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could disrupt cross-border funds flowing in the sectors I deal with. I'm concerned about increased volatility affecting investor confidence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about transaction delays and extra compliance costs affecting delivery schedules and prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software Developer (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I expect more work opportunities in developing compliant solutions but am wary of potential restrictions on our existing systems.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
University Professor (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Academic work might see increased focus and funding as interest in sanctions' economic impact grows.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We could see changes in crude prices and supply chain complexities if sanctions escalate tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
E-commerce Retailer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My product costs might rise if shipping and transactions with China get more expensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Geopolitical tensions may increase market volatility, influencing my investment returns.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could add a new dimension to my studies, providing insights into international law and sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Logistics Manager (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about potential disruptions in supply chains and increased shipping costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cryptocurrency Trader (Austin, TX)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Regulatory changes might drive innovation in decentralized finance solutions as alternatives to traditional systems.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Year 2: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Year 3: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Year 100: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)
Key Considerations
- Sanctions may strain diplomatic relations with China and Russia and could lead to retaliatory economic measures.
- Trade and financial sectors need careful monitoring to adapt to new transaction limitations.
- Long-term shifts might require new regulatory frameworks for international financial transactions.