Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3876

Bill Overview

Title: Special Measures to Fight Modern Threats Act

Description: This bill expands the special measures available to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to combat money laundering regarding a jurisdiction outside of the United States; a financial institution operating outside of the United States; a class of transaction within, or involving, a jurisdiction outside of the United States; or one or more types of accounts. Specifically, FinCEN may prohibit or impose conditions upon the opening or maintaining in the United States of a correspondent account or payable-through account by any domestic financial institution or domestic financial agency without requiring, as under current law, that such account be for or on behalf of a foreign banking institution. Further, FinCEN may prohibit or impose conditions upon certain transmittals of funds to or from any domestic financial institution or domestic financial agency if such transmittal of funds involves any such jurisdiction, institution, class of transaction, or type of account.

Sponsors: Sen. Warner, Mark R. [D-VA]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in international financial transactions and foreign financial institutions

Estimated Size: 10000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

International Banking Executive (New York, NY)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy increases scrutiny on our international transactions, which could complicate certain operational processes.
  • Over the long term, it might benefit us by reducing bad actor activities which can create expensive regulatory issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Small Business Owner (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could delay or complicate some of our transactions with foreign partners.
  • Increased fees due to compliance costs might hurt my profit margins initially.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cryptocurrency Trader (Miami, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Regulations might extend to crypto transactions too, making trading more cumbersome.
  • Could reduce illegal activity in the crypto space, indirectly benefiting legitimate traders like myself.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired (Chicago, IL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • With stricter measures, sending money to my family might become more restricted or expensive.
  • I worry about potential delays in transfers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Software Engineer (Houston, TX)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don’t perceive a direct impact on my current financial situation.
  • I am concerned about potential implications if my relative faces restrictions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Financial Analyst (Seattle, WA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might increase the demand for compliance experts, benefiting my career.
  • Companies might struggle at first adapting to more stringent regulations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

University Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 58 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The bill could add to the complexity of financial systems internationally, making it a rich topic for study.
  • It may foster in-depth discussions and research opportunities at the university.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Freelancer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I might need to deal with more paperwork or verification steps to get paid.
  • This could delay payments from some clients.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Investment Advisor (Charlotte, NC)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Stricter measures might initially affect market rhythms, impacting portfolio strategies.
  • In the long term, reducing money laundering can stabilize and benefit global markets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

NGO Employee (Denver, CO)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Regulations might complicate receiving funds, especially from high-risk regions.
  • It’s essential to ensure funds are from ethical sources, so this policy could help in that regard.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 2: $12000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $14000000)

Year 3: $13000000 (Low: $11000000, High: $15000000)

Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $13000000, High: $17000000)

Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $23000000)

Year 100: $400000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $450000000)

Key Considerations