Bill Overview
Title: A bill to terminate certain waivers of sanctions with respect to Iran issued in connection with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill revokes certain waivers of sanctions relating to Iran's nuclear activity, including for (1) the modernization or redesign of the Arak reactor, and (2) the preparation or modification of centrifuge cascades at the Fordow facility. The bill also prohibits the President from issuing a new waiver relating to such activities.
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People involved with or affected by modifications to Iran's nuclear facilities under JCPOA
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill affects parties involved in the modernization or redesign of Iran's Arak reactor and the preparation or modification of centrifuge cascades at the Fordow facility.
- Such parties are likely to include Iranian nuclear scientists, engineers, and workers involved in these projects.
- Sanctions may also impact companies or contractors from other countries that are currently engaged in these activities under existing waivers.
- Iranian citizens may be affected indirectly due to potential economic repercussions or changes in international relations stemming from the termination of waivers.
- Companies in other countries involved in the Iran nuclear deal could face economic impacts.
- The broader Iranian population may experience impacts related to economic conditions as a result of changes in sanction policies, which might affect their livelihoods or access to resources.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects Iranian nuclear projects and those involved directly with them, which limits its direct impact on the American population.
- Most Americans may not notice a direct change in their personal or economic situations as a result of these sanctions.
- Indirect effects may manifest through changes in foreign policy dynamics or in global relations, which can trickle down in domestic political perceptions.
- A small fraction of Americans, especially in companies dealing with international nuclear compliance, foreign policy experts, or those involved in the oil and gas industry, might experience more direct impacts.
- We can expect a majority of the interviewed sample to reflect lower direct impact scores due to the indirect nature of the implications for most Americans, considering the target of the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The revocation of waivers will add tension in an already turbulent region.
- This may give rise to new security dynamics which could influence U.S. relations and foreign policy priorities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Engineer (Sunnyvale, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might affect international stock markets, which could impact my investments.
- Though my primary engagements are tech, I keep an eye on energy sector developments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Oil Industry Analyst (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Oil prices may experience volatility due to geopolitical tensions.
- My work involves advising on risk, so this policy change keeps us on our toes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy change creates a richer subject for my research.
- It's an interesting case of how international agreements evolve.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Diplomat (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Further complicating relations in the region can have long-term implications for global peace.
- Sanctions often push adversarial stances rather than diplomatic resolutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Nuclear Policy Expert (Chicago, IL)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could unravel collaborative nuclear safety efforts internationally.
- It may lead to further isolation of important stakeholders.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Marketing Director (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Geopolitical changes might influence consumer behavior in international markets.
- It's crucial to have flexible strategies in rapidly changing environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Public Relations Specialist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our clients must be prepared to navigate this new reality and anticipate potential backlash.
- Part of my job involves interpreting how such policies affect corporate communication strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
International Trade Consultant (Boston, MA)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Such policy changes increase the complexity and risk in international transactions.
- Advisory services become more crucial for clients navigating sanctioned environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Political Activist (New Orleans, LA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy may prolong hostilities, impacting peace efforts and community relations.
- Policies like these influence grassroots dialogues and activism momentum.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)
Year 2: $9500000 (Low: $7500000, High: $11500000)
Year 3: $9000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $11000000)
Year 5: $8500000 (Low: $6500000, High: $10500000)
Year 10: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)
Year 100: $7500000 (Low: $5500000, High: $9500000)
Key Considerations
- This policy primarily affects foreign policy rather than direct economic activity within the U.S.
- Potential retaliatory actions by Iran or other nations could complicate international relations and economic outcomes.
- Long-term geopolitical stability and diplomatic relations can influence unforeseen economic repercussions.