Bill Overview
Title: Emergency Relief from Duties Act
Description: This bill provides for a temporary waiver of countervailing and antidumping duties relating to fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients in emergency situations. Specifically, a covered party (e.g., a manufacturer, trade association, or other interested party) may petition the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) to waive countervailing or antidumping duties assessed for fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients (or renew such a waiver) in emergency situations that limit the production or supply of fertilizer or fertilizer ingredients. The bill requires the USITC to (1) allow the public to submit comments on any petition for a waiver or renewal; and (2) issue, within 30 days after the close of the public comment period, a final decision concerning the waiver or renewal. Any waiver or renewal shall be for a period of one year.
Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]
Target Audience
Population: People depending on agricultural productivity, food prices, or directly involved in the fertilizer industry globally
Estimated Size: 50000000
- The waiver on countervailing or antidumping duties directly affects manufacturers and suppliers of fertilizers or fertilizer ingredients globally.
- Farmers around the world rely on fertilizers to maintain crop yields. If costs are lowered due to the waiver of duties, it could potentially stabilize or reduce the cost of agricultural inputs.
- Globally, there are numerous manufacturers in countries supplying fertilizers that are subject to US duties. Waiving these duties might increase competitiveness and market access for these international producers.
- Food prices worldwide could be affected as fertilizer prices impact agricultural productivity and food supply chains.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily affects: 1) US farmers who rely on fertilizers to maintain crop yields and may benefit from reduced costs; 2) manufacturers and suppliers of fertilizers who may experience changes in price competitiveness and market dynamics; and 3) individuals involved indirectly in agriculture or food supply chains due to potential changes in food prices.
- The policy's budget and target estimate cover 50 million people in the American agricultural sector, with farmers and agricultural employees as direct beneficiaries. These people rely on affordable fertilizer inputs.
- A diverse range of individuals involved in agriculture is considered, from large-scale farmers to smaller family-run operations, as well as supply chain workers.
- Different geographic locations and types of agricultural operations are included, from Midwest grain farmers to southern vegetable producers.
- Wellbeing for individuals within the identified impact population might change due to enhanced economic stability, reduced stress about input costs, and improved competitive positioning.
- The interviewing covers both those who perceive a direct benefit and others who might see little to no impact, reflecting the varied immediate reach of the policy.
Simulated Interviews
Corn Farmer (Iowa)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could help me reduce my production costs if fertilizer prices drop, meaning more money to invest back into the farm.
- There's uncertainty about whether the savings will be passed down to farmers like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Fertilizer Manufacturing Worker (Ohio)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the duties are waived, our company might face new competition from international producers.
- I'm worried about job stability if others enter the market easily.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Vineyard Owner (California)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This initiative could help stabilize the cost of the minerals we use in winemaking.
- I'm supportive of anything that helps agricultural producers stay competitive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economist (Texas)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy has a dual-edged sword effect—it might benefit producers but risks opening US markets to potentially subsidized foreign goods.
- We need very precise implementation to protect local industries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Agricultural Policy Analyst (Florida)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could help small-scale farmers in emergencies, but we need safeguards to ensure they truly benefit.
- The policy should include measures to support affected workers in the US fertilizer industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Retired Grain Farmer (Nebraska)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Waiving duties could dramatically lower costs in emergency situations, benefiting farmers who face disaster-related shortages.
- I'm concerned about the long-term implications on domestic producers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Soybean Farmer (North Carolina)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We hope this leads to friendlier fertilizer prices, making organic investments more feasible.
- I'm watching to see how much the cost savings trickle down to small farms like ours.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Agricultural Supply Chain Manager (Illinois)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The waiver can influence supply chain dynamics significantly.
- Could lead to a boost in competitiveness worldwide, but we must consider the balance with local economic impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Agricultural Extension Officer (Georgia)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reducing input costs can make sustainable farming more accessible.
- This policy should be complemented with education on sustainable practices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Wheat Farmer (Kansas)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- In emergencies like droughts, this waiver could be crucial by easing supply constraints and reducing costs.
- I hope this is coupled with effective disaster relief policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 3 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The bill's direct fiscal impact comes from waived countervailing and antidumping duties, affecting government revenue.
- Economic effects, particularly savings in the agricultural sector, hinge on the global price dynamics of fertilizers and supply chain integrations.