Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3802

Bill Overview

Title: Big Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act

Description: This bill imposes an excise tax on the windfall profits of crude oil on taxpayers who extracted and imported more than 300,000 barrels (a barrel equals 42 U.S. gallons) of taxable crude oil (i.e., crude oil, crude oil condensates, and natural gasoline) in 2019, or who extracted and imported that amount in the current calendar quarter. The bill requires rebates of the tax collected to be paid to individual taxpayers. The bill establishes the Protect Consumers from Gas Hikes Fund to finance such rebates.

Sponsors: Sen. Whitehouse, Sheldon [D-RI]

Target Audience

Population: Global consumers impacted by oil pricing changes due to the taxation on large oil companies

Estimated Size: 331000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Oil company engineer (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The tax could impact my bonus from the company, as there might be a cut in profits.
  • I hope the rebates will cover any losses in my bonuses, but I am skeptical.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Teacher (New York City, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm supportive of taxing big oil for environmental reasons and if I receive a rebate, it should help my budget.
  • However, if it results in expensive fare hikes in public transport it's concerning.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Retiree (Des Moines, IA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm on a fixed income, so any financial aid from the government is welcome.
  • I worry about gas price hikes making it harder to manage my expenses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 7 6

Startup founder (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like this encourage sustainable practices, which align with my business values.
  • Rebates could additionally be reinvested into my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Small business owner (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If gas prices go up due to reduced oil output, it'll majorly impact my delivery costs.
  • However, any rebates could help cushion the blow temporarily.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

IT specialist (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Direct oil pricing changes don't affect me much personally.
  • Receiving any cost-of-living rebates will be beneficial nonetheless.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Environmental activist (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is aligned with long-term sustainability goals.
  • Happy to see direct rebates encouraging consumer relief.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 8

Logistics manager (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 6.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policy fluctuation could impact logistics costs for the business despite individual rebates.
  • Need to foresee longer-term adjustments in the transport ecosystem.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

College professor (Denver, CO)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's a step forward towards integrating sustainable practices in big industries.
  • Rebates are helpful for families to maintain budgets amid energy shifts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Part-time librarian (Miami, FL)

Age: 67 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worry about any increase in living costs, though rebates provide some short-term relief.
  • Need to be careful with budgeting either way.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)

Year 2: $102000000 (Low: $77000000, High: $127500000)

Year 3: $104000000 (Low: $78000000, High: $130000000)

Year 5: $108000000 (Low: $81000000, High: $135000000)

Year 10: $120000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $150000000)

Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)

Key Considerations