Bill Overview
Title: Preempting Misguided Appeasement and Financing of Destabilizing Regimes Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of crude oil, petroleum, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas from Venezuela and Iran. The prohibition does not apply to those products seized by the U.S. government for violations of sanctions.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People involved with or economically reliant on the oil and gas sectors of Venezuela and Iran
Estimated Size: 2000000
- The bill focuses on prohibiting the importation of crude oil, petroleum, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas from Venezuela and Iran.
- Countries primarily affected directly by the bill will be Venezuela and Iran due to the export restrictions.
- The global oil and gas market may be affected due to changes in supply dynamics, potentially influencing global prices.
- Businesses involved in the energy sector, particularly in countries that are major importers or exporters of Venezuelan or Iranian oil, will experience changes in their supply chains.
- People working in the oil and gas industries in Venezuela and Iran may experience economic impact due to reduced export opportunities.
Reasoning
- The primary population impacted includes American industries and consumers that rely on oil imports, particularly from Venezuela and Iran.
- Individuals involved directly or indirectly with the oil and gas sectors, including workers who might face job insecurity due to changes in import dynamics, should be considered.
- The policy could lead to changes in global oil prices, affecting consumer prices in the U.S., which could influence the self-reported wellbeing of a wide range of American citizens.
- Consideration should also be given to those who are not directly involved in the oil industry but may face indirect effects, such as changes in fuel costs.
- Given the budget constraints, it's likely that the policy aims to have a wide-reaching effect without deep intervention in industries or direct financial aid, focusing more on indirect impacts through market adjustments.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Refinery Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about potential job cuts if the refinery reduces operations.
- The local economy depends heavily on the oil industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Logistics Manager (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might complicate our import strategies and increase costs.
- We might have to search for alternative suppliers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Investment Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Potential for oil price fluctuations could create investment opportunities.
- Clients are concerned about stable returns.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
University Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interested to study the policy's effect on global markets.
- Worries about passing of costs to consumers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Environmental Activist (Austin, TX)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Hopeful that this policy will encourage investment in renewables.
- Concerned about potential short-term cost hikes for energy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Salt Lake City, UT)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If oil prices go up, it'll affect my retail business.
- I have to plan for potentially smaller margins.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retiree (Miami, FL)
Age: 71 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm on a fixed income, so any increase in energy costs is worrisome.
- I support measures that target destabilizing regimes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Tech Startup Founder (Seattle, WA)
Age: 34 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could push more interest towards renewable solutions.
- Hope to capitalize on increased demand for alternatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Auto Industry Worker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our company could benefit if oil prices make EVs more attractive.
- I worry about overall energy costs going up.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Long-haul Truck Driver (Denver, CO)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising fuel costs could eat into my profits.
- Concerned about sustainability of my job if costs become too high.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $55000000)
Year 2: $51000000 (Low: $46000000, High: $56000000)
Year 3: $52000000 (Low: $47000000, High: $57000000)
Year 5: $54000000 (Low: $49000000, High: $59000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Impact on domestic oil prices is uncertain and depends on global supply chain adjustments.
- U.S. economic resilience in the energy sector may mitigate some negative impacts of import bans.
- Monitoring and enforcement will require significant governmental resources.