Bill Overview
Title: A bill to suspend normal trade relations treatment for the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill suspends normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. It also prohibits the importation of energy products from Russia. Specifically, the bill authorizes the President to proclaim increases in the rates of duty applicable to products of Russia or Belarus. This authority terminates on January 1, 2024. The President may restore normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, subject to congressional disapproval. Additionally, the bill prohibits the importation of Russian products that are classified under chapter 27 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (which includes mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, and mineral waxes). The bill directs the U.S. Trade Representative to take certain actions, including to consider steps to suspend Russia's participation in the World Trade Organization and seek to halt the accession process of Belarus.
Sponsors: Sen. Wyden, Ron [D-OR]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by trade disruptions between their countries and Russia/Belarus
Estimated Size: 80000000
- The global energy market will be affected, as Russian energy products are major exports for Russia and impactful in global trade.
- Countries relying on Russian and Belarusian imports will need to seek alternative suppliers, affecting their economies and industries.
- Global political relations and diplomacy efforts may be influenced by these trade measures, impacting various nation-states economically and politically.
Reasoning
- The United States imports about 3% of its petroleum from Russia, a figure that will require adjustment either through increased domestic production or alternative foreign sources. This will initially drive energy costs up due to shortages.
- Industries heavily reliant on international trade with Russia and Belarus will be directly impacted by increased tariffs and import/export bans, particularly in sectors like energy and heavy manufacturing.
- Consumers in the U.S. might face increased costs for goods that rely on energy either for production or transportation, potentially increasing consumer price inflation.
- Certain U.S. regions more reliant on Russian energy may feel a distinct impact compared to others relying less on such imports.
- Over the longer term, job displacement may occur as businesses reliant on the affected trade adjust or shut down.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Refinery Worker (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about job security due to reliance on Russian oil for refinery.
- Sees the policy as necessary for geopolitical reasons but worries about immediate economic impact on personal job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Software Developer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Believes the policy aligns with environmental goals by reducing fossil fuel dependence.
- Does not see a significant personal impact as prefers renewable energy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Automobile Supply Chain Manager (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 56 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about increased costs and disruptions in supply from halted trade.
- Believes diversifying supply chains is critical but slow.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Views the policy as adding volatility to already unstable markets.
- Doesn't face significant personal distress but notes market challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Restaurant Owner (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Afraid of impacts on gourmet suppliers which may already be struggling.
- Could see increased prices affecting customer retention.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Student (Denver, Colorado)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sees importance in re-evaluating energy dependencies.
- Optimistic about potential for green energy innovation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Economics Professor (Atlanta, Georgia)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Views the policy as an essential measure in shifting global trade balances.
- Concerns about short-term rates of economic growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Local Government Official (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Looks forward to bolstering regional renewable energy transitions.
- Sees geopolitical necessity but mindful of local infrastructure limits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Logistics Company Owner (Miami, Florida)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worries about disruptions in routing and shipping.
- Sees long-term strategic need but fears temporary business slowdowns.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Retired (St. Louis, Missouri)
Age: 67 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Worried about any potential increase in living costs.
- Hopes policy reduces longer-term dependency on unstable energy markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)
Year 2: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Global energy markets' volatility could impact domestic energy prices.
- There is an potential risk of increased inflation as energy prices rise.
- Potential trade retaliation by Russia might impact U.S. exports.