Bill Overview
Title: Say No to the Silk Road Act
Description: This bill requires various actions pertaining to China's sovereign digital currency. Specifically, the bill requires (1) the Office of Management and Budget to develop guidance for executive agencies pertaining to security requirements for the use of China's sovereign digital currency, (2) countries accepting assistance through the Foreign Military Financing Program to disclose any use of such currency as a settlement or reserve currency, and (3) the Department of State to include on its public website a warning for travelers about the dangers of such currency.
Sponsors: Sen. Blackburn, Marsha [R-TN]
Target Audience
Population: People using or affected by China's sovereign digital currency
Estimated Size: 10000000
- Many people around the world could be impacted by this bill since China's digital currency could influence global economic transactions.
- Individuals who use China's sovereign digital currency for international trade or travel may be particularly impacted by this bill.
- Travelers to China or countries where the digital currency is used may find the Department of State's warnings relevant.
- People in nations receiving U.S. Foreign Military Financing might experience changes or pressures due to the disclosure requirements about the use of China's digital currency.
Reasoning
- The policy has a broad global target since China's digital currency is expanding its reach beyond China. However, in the U.S., the direct impact might be limited to travelers to China, individuals involved in international finance, and businesses that engage with Chinese financial markets.
- Deploying a budget of $5 million for year 1 and nearly $60 million over 10 years suggests initial setup costs for security guidance and travel advisories, with ongoing costs related to updating, monitoring, and international cooperation.
- The complexity of the policy implementation means that the largest impacts are likely on the financial industry and businesses engaged in international trade, but over time, it could affect ordinary travelers if the digital currency's use expands significantly.
Simulated Interviews
International Trade Consultant (New York City, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy seems overly cautious but could be necessary. Ensuring secure use of digital currencies is essential, especially with evolving technologies.
- As someone who advises businesses on international trade, I might need to adjust my guidance to clients regarding financial transactions with China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's good to track and secure digital currency usage, but this policy might slow down innovation in FinTech.
- As a software developer, I see opportunities in creating more secure applications to support this transition.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could be a strategic move to counterbalance China's growing influence in global finance.
- Potentially creates international diplomatic challenges, but necessary for national security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ensuring digital currency transactions are secure is crucial. I'd like more information on how this affects my imports.
- Could result in additional paperwork and compliance costs; possibly affecting profit margins.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy makes sense from a security perspective, given the rise in digital currency usage globally.
- May complicate certain transactions, but ensures compliance with U.S. regulations is maintained.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Grad Student in International Finance (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could make my research more relevant as it might change dynamics in financial transactions with China.
- Concerned about how this might affect my planned travel to China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased security is reassuring, but I hope it's not overly restrictive.
- Hoping to continue traveling without major issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may offer better risk assessments for my clients.
- Slightly worried about the impact on global market stability, but it could lead to new insights.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
PhD Student in Economics (Boston, MA)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy adds depth and complexity to my research.
- Could help to understand real-world implications of digital currency regulations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Travel Blogger (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 51 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might not personally affect me unless there's a growth in China's digital currency use where I travel.
- Interesting geopolitical move by the U.S, adds content for my blog.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 2: $5200000 (Low: $4200000, High: $6300000)
Year 3: $5400000 (Low: $4400000, High: $6500000)
Year 5: $5900000 (Low: $4800000, High: $7000000)
Year 10: $7000000 (Low: $5600000, High: $8400000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy generates no direct revenue or savings; its costs are primarily administrative and related to regulatory compliance.
- Potential positive impacts on economic security through increased awareness and monitoring of digital currency transactions.
- Uncertainty about the global adoption and future impact of China's sovereign digital currency affects long-term estimates.