Bill Overview
Title: Stop Russian GOLD Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits a U.S. person from engaging in a transaction with a foreign person who purchases, transacts in, or transports Russian gold.
Sponsors: Sen. Cornyn, John [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in transactions with Russian gold
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill targets U.S. persons, preventing them from engaging with foreign individuals dealing in Russian gold.
- Russian entities involved in gold transactions may experience economic impacts due to the restrictions.
- There could be ripple effects on global gold markets, impacting entities dealing in gold, beyond just those engaging with Russian gold.
- The purpose of the bill is to pressure the Russian economy, potentially impacting its government's and oligarchs’ finances.
Reasoning
- The policy targets US entities transacting with Russian gold, estimated at 50,000 individuals and businesses.
- Concentrating within the finance and trading sectors, it's unlikely that low-income workers are directly affected.
- Small traders or investors in gold may face changes due to market volatility impacting their Cantril wellbeing scores.
- The policy might create indirect economic effects, like increased compliance costs, marginally affecting others.
- Overall, the direct impact is limited by the policy's financial allocation and its specific regulatory nature.
Simulated Interviews
Investment Banker (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might enhance scrutiny in gold transactions.
- I have to review portfolios for any indirect Russian gold exposure.
- There might be a dip in gold trade efficiency due to increased regulations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Small Business Owner - Jewelry (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unclear impact, as major suppliers handle international sourcing.
- Might see shifts in gold prices; cautious but not worried.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Gold Market Analyst (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Russian gold sanctions could stabilize some political factors.
- This impacts data trends and requires strategy adjustments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired, Former Precious Metals Trader (Miami, FL)
Age: 54 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this may stabilize certain market aspects.
- My exposure is minimal, but I'm monitoring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Corporate Lawyer (Houston, TX)
Age: 41 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased compliance checks will be needed for clients.
- Potential increased demand for compliance consultancy services.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
University Professor - Economics (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could affect research on Russian economic interactions.
- This adds complexity to existing trade models we evaluate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Gold Miner Manager (Dallas, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Limited direct impact but potential price fluctuations.
- Focus will remain on optimizing operations amid sector shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Economist (Boston, MA)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rich area for research on economic sanctions and their impact.
- Could shape future sanction policy designs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Compliance Officer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy creates more work and complexity in compliance.
- Expected adaption of regulatory frameworks will occur.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Freelance Writer (Denver, CO)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased content opportunities through policy analysis.
- Possible shift in readership due to expanded coverage.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $26000000 (Low: $21000000, High: $31000000)
Year 3: $27000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $32000000)
Year 5: $29000000 (Low: $24000000, High: $34000000)
Year 10: $35000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $40000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)
Key Considerations
- The effectiveness of enforcing transaction prohibitions on a specific commodity like Russian gold.
- Potential diplomatic reactions from countries economically tied to Russian gold exports.
- Monitoring compliance may require coordination with international regulatory bodies.