Bill Overview
Title: Ban Russian Energy Imports Act
Description: This bill declares that a national emergency exists with respect to the aggression of Russia against Ukraine. During this emergency, the President must prohibit the importation of crude oil, petroleum, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas, and coal in which Russia or a Russian national has any interest. The bill exempts products that are already loaded or in transit at the time of this bill's enactment.
Sponsors: Sen. Manchin, Joe, III [D-WV]
Target Audience
Population: People worldwide impacted by shifts in energy markets
Estimated Size: 300000000
- The bill specifically targets imports of energy products from Russia to the United States.
- The global energy market could see shifts in supply and pricing as a result of the U.S. embargo on Russian energy imports.
- Other countries might follow the lead of the U.S., which could amplify the impact on global markets.
- Countries reliant on Russian energy exports may have to seek alternative suppliers, impacting international trade relations.
- Non-Russian energy producers globally may benefit from increased demand for their commodities, potentially leading to economic benefits for those industries.
- Energy consumers worldwide might face price fluctuations as markets adjust to the changes in supply sources.
Reasoning
- The policy is aimed at affecting energy imports, which could impact fuel prices for consumers and businesses that rely on petroleum-related products. This might affect various sectors differently based on their reliance on energy inputs.
- Individuals working within industries related to energy production or transportation may experience different impacts due to fluctuations in market demand and prices.
- Households with high energy consumption might see their costs increase if prices rise, whereas those in energy-producing regions may benefit from increased local production demands.
- The budget constraint indicates financial assistance or subsidies might be provided to some sectors or individuals affected by potential initial cost increases or supply chain disruptions.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Refinery Worker (Louisiana)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about job security if the company cannot find alternatives to Russian oil.
- If prices go up, we might be busier, which could be stressful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Analyst (New York)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Energy prices might affect my rent if utilities rise.
- I support actions against Russian aggression.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Steelworker (Pennsylvania)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any increase in fuel prices would strain my budget.
- It's a necessary move to support Ukraine.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Student (California)
Age: 22 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Energy policy changes are needed to move toward renewables.
- Rideshare costs might increase, which concerns me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Truck Driver (Ohio)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If gas prices go up, I'll have a harder time making ends meet.
- I understand the political reasons behind this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Energy Sector Consultant (Texas)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could increase demand for my expertise in finding alternative suppliers.
- Policy is aligned with energy independence interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Elementary School Teacher (Illinois)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried higher energy bills will cut into school budgets.
- I hope this leads to more domestic energy production.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Developer (Washington)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might see changes in my energy stock investments.
- Remote work reduces my energy use, so I won't be heavily impacted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Farmer (Florida)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising fuel costs could cut into my profits.
- Need to explore more sustainable energy sources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Scientist (Massachusetts)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with my vision for sustainable development.
- I hope this accelerates the shift to greener energy solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $1800000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $2300000000)
Year 3: $1600000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $2100000000)
Year 5: $1400000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 10: $1200000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1600000000)
Year 100: $1000000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1400000000)
Key Considerations
- The shift in supply chains could lead to temporary market disruptions.
- Potential for geopolitical ramifications and shifts in international relations.
- Opportunity for increased domestic energy production and investment.
- Need for adaptation in industries reliant on Russian energy imports such as refining and manufacturing.