Bill Overview
Title: SPIGOT Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia. The President may waive this prohibition by meeting certain requirements, such as certifying to Congress that the import prohibition would unduly impact energy prices for U.S. consumers. The bill also requires the President to impose sanctions on foreign individuals and entities that are involved with (1) importing crude oil and petroleum products from Russia to the United States, and (2) acts of corruption or serious human rights abuses.
Sponsors: Sen. Markey, Edward J. [D-MA]
Target Audience
Population: People globally affected by changes in the Russian oil trade due to the SPIGOT Act
Estimated Size: 250000000
- The bill's prohibition on importing Russian crude oil will impact global oil markets.
- Countries relying heavily on Russian oil, including European countries, will be affected.
- Importers and industries in the U.S. dependent on Russian oil will need to find alternative sources.
- The sanctions on entities involved in oil transactions with Russia could deter companies globally from these activities.
- The global oil supply chain is interlinked, impacting producers, refiners, and consumers worldwide.
Reasoning
- The policy’s primary impact will be on industries and consumers linked to the importation of oil and petroleum products from Russia.
- For U.S. consumers, the main effect will be felt through potential changes in energy prices. Some areas with higher dependency on specific oil importers might see price shifts.
- Companies that import Russian oil or are involved in global oil trade under conditions specified in the SPIGOT Act might face sanctions, leading to financial losses or operational adjustments.
- Given the highly interconnected nature of global oil markets, shifts in U.S. import strategies could have ripple effects on job security in related industries, cost of goods, and overall economic stability.
- Not all Americans will feel a direct impact. Some regions or sectors may largely remain unaffected if alternative oil sources are accessible or pre-existing contracts divert reliance from Russian oil.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Refinery Manager (Houston, TX)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the policy's impact on our refinery's operations. We'll need to find new suppliers which could increase costs.
- Our adaptability to switching sources in a tight oil market might influence our business's survival.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Restaurant) (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about rising energy prices cut into my already thin margins.
- If energy prices soar, I might have to increase prices or cut costs elsewhere.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 44 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy presents both risks and opportunities for our clients. Market volatility could lead to gains or losses.
- We'll have to carefully assess the risk of sanctioned companies in our portfolios.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Autoworker (Detroit, MI)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While my job isn't directly tied to oil imports, energy costs affect everything from production costs to my personal energy bills.
- Policy-induced price increases might tighten budgets for both businesses and workers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about rising energy bills eating into my savings.
- Fixed income means any increase in cost of living hurts my financial stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Environmental Activist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This can be a chance to reduce dependency on coal and oil, promoting renewable energy.
- Policy can accelerate a needed shift, beneficial in the long term for the environment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 8 |
College Student (Austin, TX)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The energy job market is directly affected by such policies, shaping future employment in the field.
- This presents a need to keenly follow these developments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Freight Transport Business Owner (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising oil prices directly impact my business costs and profitability.
- The policy might necessitate adjustments in service pricing or routes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Energy Consultant (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could encourage a shift towards renewable energies, which I support.
- May create more work opportunities for those of us in the renewable sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Tech Company Executive (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our industry's interest in clean energy might see a boost due to these shifts.
- Tracking energy costs closely but it may have lower immediate impacts on our tech sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 2: $900000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1100000000)
Year 3: $900000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1100000000)
Year 5: $800000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 10: $700000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $900000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)
Key Considerations
- Global oil market volatility could affect the U.S. economic landscape.
- Potential diplomatic repercussions from allied countries dependent on Russian oil.
- The extent of adaptation by U.S. industries to alternative oil sources.
- Enforcement and compliance challenges related to sanctions and import bans.