Bill Overview
Title: Deterring Communist Chinese Aggression against Taiwan through Financial Sanctions Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires sanctions and other actions if China's government makes any attempt to subject Taiwan to China's control, including by invading Taiwan's territory. If China's government makes such an attempt, the bill requires certain actions, including (1) the imposition of sanctions against Chinese nationals, citizens, and entities that participate in the attempt; and (2) a prohibition against trading in the securities of Chinese entities on national securities exchanges.
Sponsors: Sen. Scott, Rick [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People living in China, Taiwan, and those involved in international trade with these regions
Estimated Size: 330000000
- Taiwan has a population of approximately 23.5 million people who would be directly impacted by any aggression from China.
- China has a population of about 1.4 billion people, with millions involved in government, business, and trade who could be affected by sanctions.
- Sanctions could affect global markets and entities trading with China, impacting the international business community broadly.
- The U.S. has economic ties with China, with investors and companies potentially affected by changes in securities trading regulations.
- Other countries with significant trade relations with China and Taiwan might also be indirectly impacted.
Reasoning
- The policy is designed to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan by threatening economic sanctions and regulatory changes.
- The target population in the US is diverse, spanning investors, businesspersons, and individuals with familial ties to China and Taiwan.
- The budget constraints imply strategic deployment of financial resources, primarily affecting financial markets and a specific subset of individuals and entities.
- A large portion of the US population may remain unaffected directly, though ripple effects may be felt across industries.
- Individuals directly trading with China or invested in Chinese markets are the most likely to experience significant impacts, both positive (deterrence of aggression) and negative (market volatility).
- Taiwanese and Chinese Americans may perceive the policy differently based on personal ties and business dealings.
- The response to sanctions could affect well-being over time, with some segments experiencing initial uncertainty and others possibly benefiting from long-term stability.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am worried about how sanctions could impact my investments.
- If this deters China from taking aggressive actions, it's a good move.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our supply chain could face significant challenges.
- This might provoke unnecessary tension financial instability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am concerned about my business operations.
- Sanctions could complicate existing agreements.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 10 |
Software Developer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our funding could be at risk.
- There’s a lot to consider politically and financially.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Export Manager (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about tariffs impacting exports.
- A balance needs to be struck between security and trade.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Professor of International Relations (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a critical move to deter aggression.
- It might escalate tensions temporarily.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Graduate Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This provides a real-world context to our studies.
- Policy should be cautiously implemented.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired (Denver, CO)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could impact my retirement savings.
- Stability is crucial for my peace of mind.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Boston, MA)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could disrupt supply chains.
- I need a stable environment to run my business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Military Analyst (San Diego, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could enhance regional stability.
- The economic impact needs careful analysis.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $155000000 (Low: $105000000, High: $205000000)
Year 3: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $210000000)
Year 5: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $220000000)
Year 10: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Key Considerations
- The enforcement of financial sanctions requires robust international coordination.
- There is potential for escalation in U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, affecting other areas of economic policy.
- It could force adjustments in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industry sectors.
- Potential retaliation from China could affect U.S. companies operating in or trading with China.