Bill Overview
Title: No Trading with Invaders Act
Description: This bill requires the President to withdraw normal trade relations status from a country that commits, against a World Trade Organization member, an act of aggression that (1) violates international law, and (2) is not a legitimate act of self-defense. The bill also makes permanent the President's authority to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions for violations of human rights and modifies such authority.
Sponsors: Sen. Portman, Rob [R-OH]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally involved in trade with countries committing aggression
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The bill can target any country that commits acts of aggression that violate international law, potentially impacting trade relationships globally.
- A wide range of American businesses and investors engaged in trade with the aggressor country will be directly impacted.
- Consumers who rely on imported goods from the target country will face potential price increases and reduced availability.
- Individuals or entities subject to visa and property sanctions will be directly impacted, including foreign individuals and government officials.
Reasoning
- This policy is expected to affect Americans who are involved in international trade with the countries targeted by these sanctions. American businesses trading directly with or investing in such countries may encounter disruptions. This could lead to potential job losses or require business model adjustments, affecting employees in these sectors. Consumers might experience increased prices or reduced availability of goods imported from these countries, leading to possible impacts on their cost of living and wellbeing.
- We anticipate that the effects of the policy will vary across different segments of the population based on how directly they are tied to the affected trade and economic relations. We project minimal direct impact on segments of the population not engaged in related trade activities.
- We consider that the immediate effects might be low to medium for directly impacted individuals (businesses or consumers), with wellbeing adjustments trailing as markets adapt or face prolonged disruptions.
- The policy's costs and the size of the program are within reasonable limits given the potential economic ramifications affecting approximately 20 million Americans through trade and consumer markets.
Simulated Interviews
Import/Export Business Owner (New York City, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the bill is imposed on some major Asian countries I deal with, my business could face severe disruptions. It may force me to diversify my sources or potentially close down if alternatives aren't found.
- The visa sanctions could affect my travel plans for business negotiations, further complicating matters.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Software Developer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems important for holding aggressive nations accountable. Personally, I don't think it will affect me unless there are spillover effects on the tech industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 56 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could create major waves in the industry. We might need to rethink our strategies and possibly face higher operation costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
College Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might see a spike in prices for electronics or other goods that I usually buy, which could be inconvenient given my tight budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions are a critical tool for diplomacy. I don't see an immediate effect on my company’s operations unless there are secondary impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Government Policy Advisor (Washington, DC)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Such policies are crucial tools for enforcing international law. It’s challenging to measure its success in direct economic terms but vital from a strategic standpoint.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retail Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our supply chain could be disrupted, resulting in either increased prices or limited stock. Adjusting will be a challenge for inventory management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Legal Consultant (Boston, MA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Though I support the spirit of the policy, I do not foresee any direct impact on my wellbeing or my clientele.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Investor (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Frankly, this policy might destabilize certain markets I'm invested in, which could alter my portfolio strategy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Factory Worker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If components from sanctioned nations become scarce or costly, our plant might face shutdowns or reduced hours.
- This could directly impact my employment stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $50000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $50000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $50000000)
Year 5: $27500000 (Low: $16000000, High: $55000000)
Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $18000000, High: $60000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $80000000)
Key Considerations
- Dynamic global trade relations and potential retaliation from the targeted country.
- Potential need for additional diplomatic engagement and building coalitions for international support.
- Impact on global supply chains and possible inflationary effects due to supply side constraints.