Bill Overview
Title: A bill to prohibit the importation of petroleum and petroleum products from the Russian Federation.
Description: This bill prohibits the importation of petroleum and petroleum products from Russia.
Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]
Target Audience
Population: People globally affected by changes in Russian oil supply and global prices.
Estimated Size: 300000000
- Russia was the third-largest supplier of crude oil to the US before the war, and a key global supplier.
- China, India, Germany, and the Netherlands are also major importers of Russian oil.
- African and Latin American countries also rely on Russian oil.
- International importers switching supply sources could impact global oil prices.
- As many European countries are highly dependent on Russian energy, they will be significantly impacted.
- Oil price fluctuations could have a broader economic impact affecting industries globally.
Reasoning
- The prohibition of Russian petroleum imports will affect various groups differently across the US population. People directly employed in industries tied to oil imports or exports, distributors, and consumers in regions heavily reliant on gas may see more substantial impacts.
- Consumers in areas where fuel prices could rise due to the change in supply dynamics might report changes in their wellbeing due to increased costs of living.
- The policy's budget limitations necessitate focus on immediate pricing impacts and possible mitigation through alternative fuel sourcing strategies or subsidies.
Simulated Interviews
Petroleum Engineer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the geopolitical reasons for this policy, but it will disrupt our supply chain temporarily.
- Our company might need to find alternative suppliers fast or risk not meeting demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Long-haul Truck Driver (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fuel costs are a big part of my expenses. If they rise too much, I'll have to reconsider my job routes or charge more.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This will definitely lead to short-term volatility in the markets. It could be an opportunity for investors if managed well.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired (Des Moines, Iowa)
Age: 67 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If fuel prices go up, everything else might get more expensive. It's hard to handle that on a fixed income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
College Student (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Age: 21 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support the move away from fossil fuels, even if it's challenging at first. It's necessary for the environment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Atlanta, Georgia)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any increase in gasoline costs directly affects my business expenses and pricing.
- I might need to reconsider my fleet strategy if fuel prices rise significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Public Transit Worker (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices can affect public transit funding and operations. That could mean service cuts or higher fares.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Stay-at-home mom (Houston, Texas)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Groceries and other essentials getting more expensive due to higher transportation costs would be very tough on my family budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Software Developer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 30 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Since I work from home most of the time, fuel prices don't directly affect me. But I'm concerned about broader economic impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
High School Teacher (Salt Lake City, Utah)
Age: 53 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any rise in transportation or fuel costs could lead to budget cuts in education, which would be concerning for resources and salaries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 2: $950000000 (Low: $700000000, High: $1150000000)
Year 3: $900000000 (Low: $600000000, High: $1100000000)
Year 5: $850000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1050000000)
Year 10: $800000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $1000000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $800000000)
Key Considerations
- Global oil markets are interconnected, and disruptions in Russian oil supply affect global prices.
- Alternative energy sources must be scalable to meet anticipated demand increases.
- Oil price volatility could affect U.S. inflation and economic stability.