Bill Overview
Title: Trading System Preservation Act
Description: This bill authorizes the President to enter into covered plurilateral trade agreements. Covered plurilateral trade agreement refers to a sector-specific agreement within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) involving foreign countries or foreign territories that form a subset of the members of the WTO that does not extend benefits on a most-favored-nation basis. Specifically, the bill requires the U.S. Trade Representative to provide a classified briefing to specified congressional committees on the feasibility and advisability of pursuing and adopting covered plurilateral trade agreements. After the congressional briefing, the bill directs the President to initiate negotiations for a covered plurilateral trade agreement when the President determines it is in the national interest to do so. The bill authorizes the President to enter into these agreements in specified sectors of the economy (e.g., digital services and pharmaceuticals), with such authority expiring on July 1, 2027. Further, the President may proclaim a modification or continuance of any existing duty or continuance of existing excise or duty-free treatment to carry out an agreement.
Sponsors: Sen. Portman, Rob [R-OH]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved or benefiting from digital services and pharmaceuticals in countries entering into plurilateral agreements
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The target population for this act includes individuals and firms involved in sectors of the economy specified for plurilateral trade agreements, such as digital services and pharmaceuticals.
- These sectors are expected to be part of the sectors listed for potential trade agreements under the act.
- Those working in and benefiting indirectly from the digital services and pharmaceuticals sectors may also be impacted, including suppliers and consumers.
- The general population of countries signing the plurilateral trade agreements could also be affected as trade conditions change, potentially impacting prices and availability of goods and services.
Reasoning
- The budget constraint of $50M in the first year and $350M over ten years limits the scale of immediate impact, primarily affecting stakeholders in digital services and pharmaceuticals.
- Direct impacts will likely be on industry professionals, including those in tech hubs and pharmaceutical giants, but ripple effects could reach consumers and small businesses in the supply chain.
- To represent a variety of perspectives, we include individuals directly affected, indirectly affected, and some not impacted at all.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see the potential for growth if our company can reach new markets through trade agreements.
- However, I'm concerned about increased competition from international companies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Pharmaceutical Sales Director (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could solidify our market share internationally if it lowers trade barriers.
- I'm optimistic, but there are regulatory concerns that could limit the benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Automotive Engineer (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 19/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy doesn't directly impact my industry, but if the economy improves, it might help indirectly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Freelance Graphic Designer (Austin, TX)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If trade agreements expand our market, it could mean more work for me.
- But I'm wary of complexity in regulations affecting my contracts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Small Business Owner - Pharmacy (Rural Kentucky)
Age: 60 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in international trade can affect drug prices, but it's uncertain how this would impact my business.
- I'm hopeful but cautious as my customer base is sensitive to pricing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Data Analyst (Seattle, WA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could mean better opportunities for us to expand globally, boosting business.
- There's risk of market saturation though, which could drive down salaries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Health Policy Analyst (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This legislation is quite important for my work, aligning with efforts to streamline trade policy.
- There's potential for both economic and healthcare system benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 4 |
Consumer Goods Retail Manager (Dallas, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If agreements lower tariffs on some products, things could become cheaper which benefits us.
- However, there might be retail shifts we need to monitor closely.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
University Student (Miami, FL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a student, this could be a case study for my program to see real-world application of trade policy.
- I'm excited to see if this opens up internship opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Legal Consultant (Chicago, IL)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could increase demand for my services if companies seek to navigate new trade laws.
- I'm cautiously optimistic, but there's a legal complexity that clients often find daunting.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The economic sectors chosen for agreements may experience significant shifts in competitive dynamics both domestically and internationally.
- There might be geopolitical implications tied to which countries participate in the agreements, affecting broader international relations.
- Administrative costs and savings estimates are contingent on the complexity and scale of negotiation processes.
- Compliance with classified briefings requirements could pose logistical and cost considerations.