Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3697

Bill Overview

Title: Combating Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing, and Counterfeiting Act of 2022

Description: This bill makes changes to anti-money laundering requirements under federal criminal and banking laws. Among the changes, the bill specifies that a blank check that is drawn on an account containing more than $10,000 and that is possessed by the bearer to avoid reporting requirements is a monetary instrument subject to international transport reporting requirements, increases the maximum criminal penalties for bulk cash smuggling, and permits the government to charge a defendant with a single count of money laundering for multiple violations that are part of the same scheme or continuing course of conduct.

Sponsors: Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or benefiting from money laundering and terrorist financing activities

Estimated Size: 500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Financial Advisor (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The new policy increases compliance workload.
  • Could potentially lose clients who are worried about additional government scrutiny.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Bank Compliance Officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy strengthens our framework for combating illicit activities.
  • A wider scope of action may improve career opportunities in compliance roles.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 8 8

Small Business Owner (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about increased scrutiny on international transactions affecting speed of business.
  • The need to comply with extra regulations may increase operational costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 7 8

Law Enforcement Officer (Houston, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Expect more resources to tackle financial crimes effectively.
  • The policy aligns with initiatives to enhance national security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 9 7
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 8 8

Unemployed (Chicago, IL)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hoping for job opportunities in new initiatives as a result of the policy.
  • Previous involvement with unverified cash sources raises personal concerns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Casino Manager (Las Vegas, NV)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhanced regulations might affect casino cash flow operations.
  • Increased regulatory paperwork could lead to higher operational workload.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • New monitoring policies may complicate investment operations.
  • The policy could prevent cross-border financial partnerships.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

NGO Financial Officer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased risk of funds being flagged due to stringent checks.
  • Policy could lead to delays in critical fund transfers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 8

Illegal Money Transfer Operator (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Expect significant negative impact due to stricter regulations.
  • Concerns about increased legal risks and business viability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 2 4
Year 2 3 4
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Corporate Lawyer (Boston, MA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy presents new business opportunities to advise on compliance.
  • May increase workload but also revenue.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 2: $450000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $550000000)

Year 3: $350000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $450000000)

Year 5: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $300000000)

Year 10: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $200000000)

Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)

Key Considerations