Bill Overview
Title: A bill to require the Secretary of State to submit to Congress classified dissent cables relating to the withdrawal of the United States Armed Forces from Afghanistan.
Description: This bill requires the Department of State to (1) submit to Congress any classified State Department cables or memos that express a dissenting opinion relating to the withdrawal of the U.S. Armed Forces from Afghanistan, and (2) make publicly available unclassified versions of such cables and memos.
Sponsors: Sen. Thune, John [R-SD]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals interested in U.S. foreign policy and military operations
Estimated Size: 8500000
- The bill involves the release of classified and unclassified dissenting opinions related to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Those directly connected to U.S. foreign policy and military operations may be affected, as the cables may alter public perception or result in policy changes.
- Afghanistan's citizens could be indirectly impacted by any changes in U.S. foreign policy following the release of the cables.
- A greater impact may be felt within the U.S. political sphere and public, particularly by those interested in military and foreign affairs.
- Families of U.S. Armed Forces personnel could have an interest due to service member involvement and historical context.
Reasoning
- The policy is highly relevant to individuals with an interest in U.S. foreign policy and military operations, as it involves transparency regarding dissenting opinions on a significant military action—the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Those with direct connections to military operations, especially families of military personnel who served in Afghanistan, may have a renewed interest or concern regarding the past actions and decisions, thus impacting their self-reported wellbeing.
- While the policy may increase public knowledge, its direct impact on individual wellbeing tends to be low, reflecting minor changes in public perception rather than tangible effects.
- The budget restraints mean that the reach of the policy is limited, affecting primarily those within the political, academic, and relevant civilian oversight communities who will directly engage with the information.
Simulated Interviews
Journalist (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm always interested in more transparency regarding military actions. This could clarify many doubts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Veteran (California)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unclassified information would help us understand what really happened.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
University Professor (New York)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Access to such information is crucial for academic research and understanding policy impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Engineer (Texas)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think these documents will affect my life much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Government Employee (Illinois)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Transparency is good but I don't see direct personal impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired Military Officer (Florida)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Knowing more about the decisions could bring closure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Defense Contractor (Virginia)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's always important to learn how decisions were supported or challenged.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Ohio)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Getting such insight is invaluable for my studies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Community Activist (New Mexico)
Age: 38 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It might help some people find answers, but I'm focused on local issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Small Business Owner (Alaska)
Age: 44 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's part of history now, but can help veterans understand experiences.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $7000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Ensuring security and confidentiality during the handling and release of classified documents.
- Managing public relations and political consequences following the release of potentially sensitive information.
- Monitoring and containing any unintended consequences on U.S. foreign relations and defense policy.