Bill Overview
Title: Never Yielding Europe’s Territory (NYET) Act of 2022
Description: This bill addresses Russia's actions against Ukraine and other countries in the region. The bill authorizes and expedites the provision of security assistance, including by (1) prioritizing delivering excess defense articles to Ukraine, (2) authorizing the Department of State to waive certain costs for defense articles leased to Ukraine, and (3) authorizing additional Foreign Military Financing for programs in Europe. The bill also provides funding for (1) Foreign Military Financing assistance to Ukraine, (2) the Global Engagement Center to counter foreign-sponsored propaganda and disinformation, (3) the Countering Russian Influence Fund to support Ukraine and other countries in response to Russia's aggression, and (4) International Military Education and Training assistance for Ukraine. Furthermore, the bill imposes sanctions, including on (1) senior Russian military officials responsible for planning or executing military operations that violated Ukraine's sovereignty or territorial integrity, and (2) foreign individuals or entities that acted on behalf of Russia's government to destabilize Ukraine or disrupt Ukraine's critical infrastructure. The bill also addresses additional matters, including (1) authorizing Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty to explore opening new bureaus to reach audiences on Russia's periphery; and (2) providing for expedited approval of natural gas exports to qualifying nations, including NATO members, whereas currently expedited approval is only available for exports to countries that are in a free trade agreement relating to natural gas with the United States.
Sponsors: Sen. Risch, James E. [R-ID]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, Russia, and other EU territories affected by geopolitical and economic shifts
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The NYET Act aims to enhance security measures in Ukraine and other European countries threatened by Russian aggression.
- This impacts Ukrainian citizens, which numbered approximately 43 million, as of recent estimates.
- Other European countries in the region receiving support will also be impacted, including countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, which have about 60 million people combined.
- The Act promotes actions that can indirectly impact Russian citizens, by imposing sanctions or other measures targeting the Russian state and its supporters.
- It targets specific Russian individuals responsible for aggressive military actions, possibly numbering in thousands.
- The services of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty can reach millions, affecting the broader European region's population in information environments.
- Natural gas export policies might influence energy markets, impacting Europeans, particularly those relying on Russian energy, embracing diversification toward US supplies.
Reasoning
- The NYET Act predominantly impacts citizens in Eastern Europe but also affects some Americans, notably those connected to European markets or with familial ties in the region.
- Given the budgetary limitations, the policy prioritizes military and educational support to Europe, specifically targeting Ukraine and allied nations threatened by Russia, while also influencing US foreign relations and energy policy.
- The policy's economic impacts within the US pertain mainly to industries related to military exports and energy markets, potentially affecting job markets.
- The simulated population includes those directly affected through familial or economic ties, as well as groups indirectly impacted through shifts in global security and economic stability.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy is crucial for maintaining security in Eastern Europe and reassuring allies against Russian aggression.
- I believe it will enhance the strategic presence of the US in Europe, supporting democracy and stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Energy Sector Manager (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy should benefit the US energy sector by opening more markets for export, which is positive for business.
- However, geopolitical tensions are a concern for market stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhanced military support to Ukraine is necessary for maintaining regional stability.
- The support for media outlets like Radio Free Europe is critical to counter disinformation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
College Professor (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The NYET Act is a positive move towards confronting Russia's aggressive actions in Eastern Europe.
- Education and training initiatives for Ukraine are especially beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Retired Military Officer (San Francisco, California)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A strong defense posture sends a clear message to Russia and supports allies.
- Ensuring military and economic stability in Europe aligns with US security interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Software Engineer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The focus on countering misinformation is very important, but cybersecurity measures could be emphasized further.
- I worry about increasing tensions between global powers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Student (Miami, Florida)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy seems necessary to deter further aggression by Russia and supports democratic partners.
- The policy can also serve as an educational opportunity to understand global alliances.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Marketing Executive (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel relieved knowing there is increased support for Ukraine against Russian threats.
- Maintaining business relationships in Eastern Europe is also important for the US economy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
NGO Director (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 55 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides much-needed resources for protection of civil society and democratic governance in Ukraine.
- Sanctions could also pressurize key players to rethink their strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Economist (Dallas, Texas)
Age: 47 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could have mixed effects; they might curb aggressive actions but could disrupt trade conditions.
- The policy needs to ensure it doesn't adversely affect global economic stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 3: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 10: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 100: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Key Considerations
- The geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe can impact both EU and global markets.
- Potential retaliatory actions by Russia might necessitate further foreign policy and military expenditures.
- Energy policy shifts due to increased US natural gas exports will necessitate infrastructure developments and regulatory adjustments.