Bill Overview
Title: Belarus Aggression Accountability Act of 2022
Description: This bill imposes sanctions on individuals and entities in Belarus that provide support to acts of military aggression by Russia's government that violate Ukraine's sovereignty or territorial integrity. The Department of State must periodically report to Congress an assessment of activities of the armed forces of Belarus that aid or assist such military aggression by Russia's government, as well as the identities of individuals and entities in Belarus that provide such aid. The President must impose property-blocking sanctions on at least five of the identified individuals and entities (and visa-blocking sanctions in the case of an individual). The State Department report must also identify individuals and entities in Belarus that knowingly engage in a significant transaction with an individual or entity that is a part of the defense or intelligence sectors of Russia's government. The President may impose sanctions on such identified individuals and entities.
Sponsors: Sen. Lankford, James [R-OK]
Target Audience
Population: Belarusians impacted by sanctions related to support for Russian military aggression
Estimated Size: 500
- The Act targets individuals and entities in Belarus involved in supporting Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
- Belarus has a population of approximately 9.5 million people.
- The sanctioned individuals/entities would have some level of influence or involvement in military or economic sectors of Belarus.
- Those sanctioned individuals and entities are not expected to exceed a few thousand given the specificity of involvement required by the Act.
- The overall Belarusian populace may experience indirect effects through economic sanctions and restricted international dealings, potentially impacting a few hundred thousand if the sanctions impact broader economic areas.
Reasoning
- Given the limited scope of the policy, it primarily affects individuals or businesses in the US with direct ties to Belarusian military or economic sectors involved with Russia.
- The vast majority of Americans will experience no direct impact, particularly those not involved in international trade or military industries.
- Those slightly affected may see changes in business dealings or have to adapt to shifts in international policy stance.
- As a result, well-being scores won't fluctuate significantly across the general population, except for those in specific affiliations impacted by trade restrictions.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My company has some investments in Eastern Europe, including areas potentially impacted by these sanctions. We need to reassess our portfolios.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I doubt the sanctions will affect the tech sector much. Our team has minimal interaction with Belarus anyway.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Policy Advisor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a strategic necessity. It adds a layer of complexity but aligns with our goals to limit aggression in Eastern Europe.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned that the sanctions will make it harder for me to export my goods to Belarus. It could hurt my business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I follow global politics avidly, and while I see the need for such acts, personally it doesn't affect my well-being much.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Logistics Manager (Austin, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions mean reevaluating routes. It increases workload, but it's part of international business risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Scientist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might marginally impact environmental efforts I monitor, mainly due to shifts in international focus.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Entrepreneur (Houston, TX)
Age: 44 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy doesn't directly impact my business operations as we're more U.S. market-focused.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 19/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This serves as a case study in my field of study. There's no personal impact, but it's academically significant.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Accountant (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My job requires tracking developments like these sanctions; however, it doesn't have a direct impact on my work-life balance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $20500000 (Low: $15000000, High: $31000000)
Year 3: $21000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $32000000)
Year 5: $22500000 (Low: $17000000, High: $34500000)
Year 10: $26000000 (Low: $19000000, High: $40000000)
Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $80000000)
Key Considerations
- The focus on Belarus's support for Russian military confrontations adds another element to ongoing sanctions on Russia.
- The Act mandates a recurring assessment, which could provide valuable intelligence on Belarusian military activities and policies.
- Anticipated costs reflect administrative and enforcement expenses rather than direct budgetary allocations.
- The Act's geopolitical implications could have longer-term impacts on U.S. foreign policy and global stability.