Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3567

Bill Overview

Title: No PLA LOOPHOLES Act

Description: This bill increases restrictions on military-to-military exchanges or contacts between the U.S. Armed Forces and the Chinese military. Specifically, the bill expands an existing prohibition on exchanges or contacts that include inappropriate exposure to advanced logistical operations to cover logistical operations instead. Additionally, the bill eliminates an exception to the prohibited exchanges or contacts in the case of search and rescue or humanitarian operations or exercises.

Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]

Target Audience

Population: Military personnel involved in U.S.-China military exchanges

Estimated Size: 12000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Logistician, U.S. Navy (California)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy seems to limit our cooperation with the Chinese military, which might cause some initial logistical headaches, but I understand the security concerns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 7 9

Search and Rescue Specialist, U.S. Air Force (Texas)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The lack of collaboration with the Chinese on rescue operations is disappointing because we learned new techniques from each other. However, operational security is key.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 8
Year 2 6 9
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Military Trainer, U.S. Army (Virginia)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might help refocus our operations internally, but losing direct insight into how the Chinese conduct their operations could pose long-term challenges.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Humanitarian Operations Coordinator, U.S. Army (Hawaii)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Working with the Chinese military was challenging but rewarding. It's unfortunate to close this channel, but I trust the reasons are valid.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Logistics Analyst, U.S. Marine Corps (Washington)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy short-term restricts insights into how the PLA operates, which is a downside for analysis, but it aligns with securing data vulnerabilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 10
Year 20 9 10

PR Liaison, U.S. Navy (New York)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Shifting narratives away from cooperation with China could make it harder to promote peaceability themes, but we must prioritize security.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Senior Policy Advisor, U.S. Department of Defense (California)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The Act is a necessary step to ensure our operations remain secure, even though it limits certain avenues of military diplomacy that have benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 8 9

Military Logistics Coordinator, U.S. National Guard (Alaska)

Age: 46 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It will be tough to not collaborate with the Chinese military in Arctic conditions where they share similar challenges, but we must safeguard our expertise.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 7 9

Search and Rescue Pilot, U.S. Coast Guard (Florida)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • There's value in our operations with the Chinese, but this policy is a reminder to invest in strengthening internal capabilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 8
Year 2 6 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 10

Strategic Planner, U.S. Space Force (Colorado)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will restrict data flow from Chinese counterparts which can set back planning, though it aligns with overall security protocols.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $45000000)

Year 2: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $45000000)

Year 3: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $45000000)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations