Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/3558

Bill Overview

Title: Values in Arms Export Act of 2022

Description: This bill restricts transferring defense articles and services to countries that violate human rights, imposes such restrictions on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and addresses related issues. The bill establishes the Human Rights and Law of War Oversight Board. The board's duties shall include (1) reviewing countries that receive U.S. defense articles for strict adherence to human rights and the law of armed conflict principles, and (2) ensuring that such principles are appropriately considered in arms transfers. The President, the Department of State, the Department of Defense, the board, or Congress may designate a country (except for certain exempted countries such as NATO member countries) as a country of concern. Such a designation shall last for three years, during which the country shall be barred from receiving the defense articles that led to the designation. The bill also imposes additional restrictions on a designated country that fails to improve its adherence to human rights principles. The Department of the Treasury must impose sanctions on the appropriate government officials of a country subject to such additional restrictions. The bill designates Saudi Arabia and the UAE as countries of concern. Before certain defense articles transfers, the President must provide Congress an assessment of the risk of the defense articles being used to violate human rights. The bill also requires various government agencies to monitor and report information concerning human rights violations involving U.S. defense articles.

Sponsors: Sen. Murray, Patty [D-WA]

Target Audience

Population: People in Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Estimated Size: 10000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Defense Contractor (Arlington, VA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could lead to job restructurings and potential project cancellations, as some clients are directly affected by these restrictions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation is a step forward in holding states accountable for human rights violations; it brings hope for more ethical policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Human Rights Advocate (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's encouraging to see legislative measures addressing human rights concerns; this is a win for advocacy groups.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 10 8
Year 20 10 8

Arms Manufacturer Executive (Dallas, TX)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy presents significant challenges for our business model, potentially necessitating layoffs and re-strategizing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 6 7

Diplomat (New York, NY)

Age: 41 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The restrictions might impact diplomatic dynamics, requiring careful navigation and increased dialogue with key allies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

International Relations Student (Boston, MA)

Age: 26 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 16/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is an excellent case study for understanding global arms trade ethics and its effects on international relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

NGO Director (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislative move empowers our work in advocating for human rights worldwide, especially for women in conflict regions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 9 6

Oil Industry Consultant (Houston, TX)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Arms export restrictions could indirectly affect the regional stability and thus energy markets, impacting my consulting work.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Defense Policy Advisor (Chicago, IL)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These oversight measures enhance the ethical dimension of US foreign policy, aligning with long-term strategic interests.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Student Activist (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's motivating to see policy shifts that align with human rights values; it keeps our activism relevant.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 2: $48000000 (Low: $38000000, High: $58000000)

Year 3: $46000000 (Low: $36000000, High: $56000000)

Year 5: $43000000 (Low: $33000000, High: $53000000)

Year 10: $40000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $50000000)

Year 100: $40000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $50000000)

Key Considerations